Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, September 21, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MOST OF SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING THOUGH MID AFTN HAVE LIFTED INTO
SCTRL SD. CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION IN SERN WY AND WRN PNHDLE
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED TSRA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS POPS AND COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SEVERE
THREAT. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH RESULTING QPFS. GIVEN
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE 40-50KTS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SB CAPES UP TO 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR WEST. AREAS
WEST OF VTN THROUGH OGA STILL MOST FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVER THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FURTHER DEEPENS WITH STRATUS TO
BECOME EXTENSIVE EAST OF LBF THROUGH VTN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS CNTRL PNHDL BY AFTN WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A BETTER DAY FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SURFACE HEATING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL
LEAD TO GREATER DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AND MOVE EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL KICK EAST WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND A COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 70S. THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG
HOWEVER AS NAM AND GFS POSITION A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NEBR/KS
STATE LINE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. HAVE
INSERTED SLIGHT CHC POPS SOUTH OF I80 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY FCST AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE AND
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING BY SUNDAY. 80S TO PREVAIL THU AND FRI
COOLING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW. CURRENT FORECAST IS VFR INTO
TOMORROW...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE BOTH TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/VSBY SHRA/TSRA. TIMING OF SCT STORMS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A TIME OF OCCURRENCE. FEEL IT IS BETTER TO AMEND WHEN/IF
STORMS WILL ARRIVE AT THE TERMINAL SITES. WOULD GIVE KVTN A HIGHER
CHANCE OF DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THAN KLBF...AS STORMS WILL
BE MOVING NORTHEAST...AFTER INITIATING OVER N CO AND WY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

KAR/MM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
355 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-222100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
355 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008 /255 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THEN STORMS WOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

SEVERE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS A
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACTS AS A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGEST STORMS IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK