Hail in Nebraska, September 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
250 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
    ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAD SHIFTED OVER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NEARER TO HOME...A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM MANITOBA NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO A LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN WEST
ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WERE IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...6.7 MICRON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A WELL-DEVELOPED WAVE ALONG THE MONTANA-WYOMING LINE NEAR
YELLOWSTONE AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
    THE PRE-FRONT TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SITUATION BECOMES SET UP FOR THE THETA-E RIDGE
TO BUILD THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE RESULTING
SCENARIO IS THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT.

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
    PERIOD APPEARS TO BE QUITE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN BY
MONDAY AND BEYOND. WITH RIDGE SLATED TO BUILD INTO AREA...LOOK FOR A
WARMING TREND MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH PERIOD...AS IKE REMNANTS STAY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
&&

.AVIATION...
    CONDITIONS BOUNCING AROUND THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MORNING MVFR
STRATUS SLOW TO ERODE FROM THE WEST. AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND/OR
VSBY TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED FOR TAFS ONLY SHRA AND CB
ATTACHED TO CLOUDS AND WILL AMEND FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF THUNDER
ONCE TIMING BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG AND SHOWERS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY DOWN
TO LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROF...THEN
A SWITCH TO WEST...BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-112030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
322 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 /222 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME LINGERING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK