Tornado and Hail in Nebraska, May 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

984 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM AKRON TO GLD. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
LOW STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NUMEROUS WATCHES AND WARNINGS TO SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWS 150% ABV
NORMAL. RAPID CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER NORTHWEST KS ALONG WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA NAD WILL LET ADVISORY GO WITH ZONE PACKAGE AS
WELL AS DENSE FOG ADVISORY. HAVE SHADED LOWS BACK SOME TONIGHT AS
WELL AS FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR SCENARIO IN PLACE. WILL WAIT TILL LAST
FOR ANTICIPATED WEATHER WATCH TO FINE TUNE WEATHER GRIDS. HAVE
LIKELYS GOING FOR TONIGHT. SPECIAL SOUNDING AT 18Z HAS STRONG CAP
BUT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL INTERACT WITH LIFTING WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO INIATE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT.
SEVERE THREAT TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS ELEVATED STORMS MOVE
OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MU CAPES IN THE AREA RUNNING 1000J/KG.

FRIDAY SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW CONTINUING OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO. STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO FOCUS FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC QPF GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORMS
EXIT NORTHEAST IN THE AM AND REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SYSTEM PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST WITH MAIN THREAT
TO THE EAST OF 83 FROM NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE. HAVE USED A
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHARPENS RIDGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SENDS WAVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHIELD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WILL KEEP IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CEILING LIFTING AS CONVECTION ROLES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT LBF AND VTN TERMINALS TO A 1/2 MILE OR LESS
IN +TSRA. THEN THE STRATUS WILL LINGER IN FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH FOR SOME CLEARING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LISCO
TO BRADY INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE LBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WESTERN NEBRASKA WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 UNTIL 10 PM CDT (9PM MDT).

&&

KECK/POWER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
306 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-231015-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
306 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008 /206 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA...IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WITH
STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO BECOME ELEVATED AND CREATE A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WINDS THIS EVENING. AREAS JUST NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST...IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS
STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME PATHS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RATIOS EXIST. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT WILL LINGER EACH DAY INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND BE THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND
FOG WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM LISCO IN GARDEN COUNTY THROUGH
HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LOCATED
ALONG EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AS THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERT REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DAILY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
146 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 NE OSHKOSH           41.51N 102.21W
05/21/2008                   GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

            ROOF TORN OFF HAY SHED THAT WAS BOLTED TO IRON RAFTERS.
            ONE GRAIN BIN DESTROYED AND 5 OTHERS DAMAGED. RAIN
            GUTTERS BLOWN OFF HOME. 4 POWER POLES REPORTED DOWN.

0835 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 11 NE OSHKOSH           41.52N 102.19W
05/21/2008                   GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

            ROOF BLOWN OFF LARGE SHED.

&&

CARMEL