Tornado and Hail in Nebraska, June 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY...
LNX WSR-88D RADAR SHOWING SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION.
ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LITES UP. 18Z KLBF
SOUNDING SHOWED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT A STRONG CAP AND DRY
CONDITIONS...PW/S LESS THAN AN INCH...HOWEVER THIS WAS ON THE DRY
SIDE OF BOUNDARIES. SURFACE DEW PT JUMPED FROM 48 TO 60S AFTER
A BOUNDARY SURGED NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL
WAVE...COLD FRONT...IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN S DAKOTA AND IS RACING
SOUTHEAST. EARLY THIS EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF WAVE RIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS N CENTRAL...A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
IS EXPECTED. SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES EARLY ON...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM IS NEAR A BOUNDARY.
THEN LARGE HAIL AND WIND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND COLD FRONT TEMPS ALOFT
COOL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR WEAKER STORMS TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALSO ON THE WAY UP.
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED CLOUDS. IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR THE STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO FORM THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTENS WITH A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL
WITH 80S TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE STORMS WITH
CIGS DROPPING BELOW 3KFT AGL AND VSBYS BEING REDUCED IN THE HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS. HAIL AND WIND THREATS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO LIGHT
AIRCRAFT NEAR THESE STORMS. OUTSIDE THE STORM AREAS VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH A HIGH CLOUD DECK ASSOC WITH REMNANT
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MASEK/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-272030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
326 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008 /226 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WERE MOVING AND
INTERSECTING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW THE VERY
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR TO BE FORCED UPWARD WHERE WIND CONDITIONS
ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE
NEAR NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADY TO MULLEN TO MERRIMAN
WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY EXISTS.

OTHER ONGOING STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
AND MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND MAY ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY EARLY
IN THE DAY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE SUPPRESSED INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE TOWARD THE
FIRST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

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