Hail in Nebraska, July 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER.
NORTH OF THE FRONT THERE HAVE BEEN ON AND OFF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL AFTERNOON...WHICH HAVE KEPT TEMPS AROUND 80
DEGREES.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE TRAINING OF STORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SURF DEW PTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
PRECIP H2O AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...THUS PLENTY OF JUICE IN THE
AREA. NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF NE CO IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. WITH 3HR FFG AROUND
2 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF SW NEB...INTO CUSTER COUNTY...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND POSTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEB FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
WATCH TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...CAP IS STRONG FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
HAILERS. AND AFTER LAST NIGHTS...WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS.

SYSTEM SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR STORMS...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S AGAIN. MAY SEE A FEW AREAS
REACH 90 IS MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE SEEN IN LOCAL POCKETS.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE
AREA...PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND TSRA TO THE SE OF FA BY TUESDAY MORN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MID WEEK WITH TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP. ALOFT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH THE SETUP FOR A FEW FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A STRAY STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER WILL
KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS KEEP JUMPING AROUND
WITH THE TIMING OF THE WAVES...BUT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
TROUGH. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS AND UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING...HAVE CONTINUED A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. WILL LIKELY ADD
SMALL POPS FOR ISOLATED OR POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE COMING
DAYS AS TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER KANSAS.
PERSISTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY
MORNING. VSBY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ038-058-059-069>071.

&&

MASEK/GARNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-071700-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 /331 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
AN OSHKOSH TO ONEILL LINE. LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS FROM A SURFACE LOW SITUATED
NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER COLORADO...AND A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF LARGE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND
PERSISTENT REDEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GRANT TO
NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WARM MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF AN OSHKOSH TO BROKEN BOW
LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

GARNER