Hail in Nebraska, July 17, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING AND EXPECTED
CONVECTION AND ASSOC PROBLEMS. LARGER MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
SDAKT THIS EVENING WHICH IS SECOND ONE TO MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA
TONIGHT...FIRST ONE IS MOVING ACROSS S.MINN ATTM. THIS HAS PUSHED
OUTFLOW TORWARD NW NEB WITH CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG AND
BEHIND IT. SMALLER MCS MOVING ACROSS FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGER HAIL HAS FALLEN. THESE
STORMS ARE DEFINITELY SLOW MOVERS AND WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT. FINALLY CONVECTION FIRING NORTH OF BLACK HILLS INTO NE
WYOMING LOOKS TO BE ASSOC WITH MAIN FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG LLVL MOISTURE
SOURCE FROM GULF PER GOES DPI PRODUCTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FEEDING IN FROM LEFT OVER MONSOON MOISTURE FROM SW. DEFINITELY NO
SHORTAGE OF FUEL FOR TSRA WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AN INCH TO NEAR 2 INCH VALUES FROM BRO TO BIS. FIRST AND MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOC HYDRO ISSUES. ELKHORN
BASIN WILL BE THE FIRST TO FEEL EFFECT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FFG
NO MUCH OVER HALF OF AN INCH. OTHER AREAS FROM S.HOLT INTO CUSTER
AND THEN INTO CANYON AND FFLOOD PRONE SW ZONES SHOWING VALUES UNDER
1.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AS STORM CONGEAL TONIGHT OVER
SW AND WITH POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FROPA K INDEX VALUES ARE
RUNNING 40+ OVER THESE AREAS AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH. PAST
FEW NIGHTS HAVE PROVEN STRONGEST STORMS/CLUSTERS CAN EASILY PUT DOWN
3+ INCHES IN SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH THOUGH SHEAR VALUES AND CAPE NUMBERS SEEM TO BE
HINTING AS MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS NIGHTS PAST WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY NORTH IN THE
STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY AND TIMING OF FROPA...ALL OF WHICH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
IN ALL ACCOUNTS. FRONT LOOKS TO SETTLE SOUTH OF CWA BY SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
WEST IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR THE FRONT IN KS POSSIBLE SW NEB WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH E/SE LLVL
FLOW SHEAR VALUES WOULD LEAD TO SVR POTENTIAL IN THE WEST. NO BIG
CHANGES BEYOND THIS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT VALENTINE IS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE THUNDER BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WHILE NORTH PLATTE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE IT BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40KT ARE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2SM. HAIL GREATER THAN OR EQUAL
TO 1/2 INCH IS POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
AND INSTRUMENT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY IN BOTH VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ010-027>029-038-059-070-071.

&&

13/SPRINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
322 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 /222 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EXISTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM BRULE IN KEITH COUNTY TO SUTHERLAND IN LINCOLN
COUNTY...TO SPENCER IN BOYD COUNTY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUT LOOK AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN RAPID EXPANSION IS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
NEBRASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ON THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

WFO LBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1012 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             22 NNE LISCO            41.79N 102.46W
07/16/2008  E0.75 INCH       GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR