Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 1, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
235 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
    ANALYSIS OF 18Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED A TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. LIGHTNING WAS INDICATED OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH COLORADO. THE SATELLITED
DERIVED PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OVER NEBRASKA WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -3C TO -6C.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
    WITH INSTABILITY INDICATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WE WOULD EXPECT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH CONDENSATION
DEFICITS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS (925-850MB) RUNNING 150-250MB...THE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE THREAT OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN OR HAIL. GUSTY WIND AND DRY LIGHTNING COULD STILL BE AN
ISSUE.
    THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. A THETA-E RIDGE
STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
    THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EACH DAY.
    THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A TRAJECTORY FROM THE GULF COAST
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ONCE AGAIN PRIMING THE PUMP WITH MOISTURE IN
TIME FOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY AND THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE THETA-E RIDGE FORMING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED...AT OR ABOVE
1500J/KG. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1-2 INCHES...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE ON MONDAY ALSO AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...
    A SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEB WILL
SERVE TO FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK MID LVL WAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE KLBF/KVTN
TERMINALS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS /VARIABLE AT TIMES/ WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NEB.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
    RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15% OVER FAR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER
THIS AREA AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS...COMBINED WITH GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS CLOSE TO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO
LOCALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NO HEADLINE
WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SPRINGER/GARNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
433 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022145-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
433 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008 /333 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A
VALENTINE TO IMPERIAL LINE. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...MAY ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A PINE RIDGE TO BROKEN BOW LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

GARNER