Winter Weather in Nebraska, January 29, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL ITEMS OF CONCERN
FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDING SHARP ARCTIC FRONT WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND THEN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN SHIELD WILL SPREAD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SWINGS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

STLT IMAGERY AND UA ANLYS SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
LIFTING NEWD AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH. ONE WAVE WAS
LIFTING INTO WRN KS AS OF 19Z WITH AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND
SOME RADAR RETURNS SPREADING INTO NERN NEBR. WL INCLUDE SCT
RW-/RW-- THIS EVENING BASED ON TRENDS BEFORE PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WAS LIFTING TWD NCNTRL SD...WITH THE
ARCTIC CDFNT SURGING SEWD BEHIND IT. AT 19Z CDFNT HAD PUSHED INTO
NWRN SD AND WAS APPROACHING GILLETTE IN NERN WY. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS
DIDN/T LOOK TOO BAD FOR FRONTAL TIMING...BRINGING FRONT NEAR A
LCG-OLU LINE BY 06Z AND THEN THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 12Z...LOOKING
AT CURRENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT...LEANED MORE TOWARD ETA MOS
FOR ACTUAL 12/13Z TEMPS. WL THEN ADJUST HOURLIES TO REFLECT
FALLING TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE CWA INTO MIDDAY TUE BEFORE THEY
LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS GO UP A BIT. LOOKS LIKE A 3-6 HOUR PD OF
LIFT...PARTIALLY FRONTOGENETIC...POST FRONTAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF LIKELY POPS FAR NE LATE
TNGT THEN ROUGHLY NE OF LCG-OMA-ICL LINE IN 12Z-18Z PD TUE.
ALTHOUGH NEW SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH...TROUBLE
IS THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. OPTED FOR A WIND ADVSRY FOR THE TIME BEING
MOST OF THE CWA AS RECENT MILD SPELL HAS MELTED OR CRUSTED CURRENT
SNOW PACK AND NEW SNOW AMOUNTS PROBABLY WON/T BE ENOUGH TO LOWER
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. HOWEVER...DID ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVSRY FAR NRN ZONES WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY DROP TO
20 BELOW OR COLDER BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW.
WINTER WX ADVSRY MAY NEED EXPANDING LATER IF ACCUMULATING SNOW
APPEARS IT WILL LAST MORE THAN SVRL HOURS FARTHER SE.

BASED TUE NGT/WED FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH ETA MOS AND NAM WIND
FIELDS...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTDG SWD NEAR MO RVR BY 12Z WED. THINK
GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK IN SHIFTING RIDGE E. THUS LOWERED
TEMPERATURES TUE NGT...BUT IF CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
THEY MAY BE TOO COOL. ALSO TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A BIT CNTRL/N ON WED
DUE TO COLDER START AND THE FACT THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING
BY THEN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. ALSO INCLUDED SLGT CHC OF SNOW
NERN ZONES AFT MID AFTN AS H7 TROUGH/LOW DVLPS CNTRL NEBR. GFS
REMAINED PERSISTENT IN DVLPG QPF BY 00Z THU AND EVEN 12Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS IT NOW. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS FOR SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY WITH OPERATIONAL GFS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST BULLISH FOR SERN NEBRASKA...WITH 00Z
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING SUPPORT WHILE NAM/SREF SHOWED LTL/MUCH LESS.
EVEN 12Z GEM AND ECMWF QPF FIELDS HAVE SHIFTED MOSTLY/ALL SE OF
THE CWA. OPTED TO LEAVE POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREV FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES...WHICH WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FAR SE. MADE A FEW
MINOR DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS SINCE CORE OF COLD AIRMASS
CURRENTLY PLUNGING SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WON/T BE DISPLACED TOO
FAR OR MODERATED GREATLY BEFORE THEN.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERAL ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDING SHARP ARCTIC
FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY... AND THEN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN SHIELD WILL
SPREAD AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW SWINGS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

TAIL END OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE
SOUTHEAST THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT.  WENT FOR CONTINUITY FROM THE
SHORT TERM WITH LINGERING CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT A LOT OF CLEARING BY FRI MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE DECENT
RADIATION DURING PART OF THE NIGHT.  NW COUNTIES SHOULD NOT RECEIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND WOULD NOT RADIATE OUT AS WELL AS IN RECENT DAYS.
 SOUTHEAST MAY WELL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE
MUCH CLEARING UNTIL LATE.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.  MODELS DEPICT A WEAK TROUGH WITH LIFT PASSING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES AROUND MONDAY.  FOLLOWED HPC TIMING FAIRLY CLOSELY...AND THIS
REFLECTS THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  12Z GFS IS A LOT FASTER...AND
THUS COLDER FOR OUR AREA.  12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SFC
SYSTEM.  WARM ADVECTION PCPN COULD BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MONDAY.  IF WE ARE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BECOME ALL RAIN ON
MONDAY IN THE SOUTH.  12Z GFS SOLUTION SO FAR IS AN OUTLIER IN
DEPICTING A MAJOR WINTER STORM...AND WAS NOT FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES OMA/LNK/OFK. VALID THRU 18Z 1/30

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT...ARND 06Z AT
KOFK AND 09Z AT KLNK AND KOMA. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STRONG NW WINDS AND PERIODS OF S-/IP- THRU 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     051>053-066-078-088-089.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ067-068-
     090>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ032-033-042-
     043-050-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030-031.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

CHERMOK/POLLACK/FOBERT

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