Hail in Missouri, March 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN MO INTO
NORTHWEST IN. WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME WHICH
WILL PLACE FORECAST AREA STARTING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS. BY NOON
TODAY, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IA WITH
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OK. COLD FRONT WILL PLOW
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BY SUNRISE TUESDAY IT WILL EXTEND
FROM EASTERN IN ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHEAST TX. IMPRESSIVE
SURFACE HIGH OF 1030+ MBS FOR EARLY APRIL WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.

SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND NAM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER JET COUPLING PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE FROM
GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO OK. THE GFS WAS
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND DISCOUNTED. STL IS JUST OVER
AN INCH FROM SETTING THE RECORD FOR THE WETTEST MARCH EVER. WITH A
LITTLE LUCK, HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF GETTING CLOSE OR BREAKING THE
RECORD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS
THE MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS FORECASTING IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO MO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALREADY WHILE THE
ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. EITHER WAY, LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS MO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TWO
MODELS REMEMBERED THE EASTER RULE AND BOTH ARE NOW FORECASTING
RAIN FOR SUNDAY.

TPS
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MVFR CEILINGS THE RULE IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED. FOR NOW
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR SHOWERS WITH CB GROUPS UNTIL EXACT TIMING
OF LINE CAN BE DETERMINED. WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

BYRD
&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA

              2008                   RECORD
STL         7.17 (7TH WETTEST)      8.25 1897

COU         4.70 (13TH WETTEST)    10.09 1973

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RECORDS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE
CLIMATE TAB.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-IRON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
     ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-GASCONADE-MONITEAU-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
502 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011015-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
502 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. THIS HEAVY
RAIN...COMBINED WITH THE SATURATED GROUND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL MEAN A THREAT OF
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1