Flash Flooding and Hail in Missouri, July 21 to 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/326 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED AGAIN TODAY AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPES OF 4000-5000 J/KG FROM ROUGHLY STL NWWD
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MO. VERY LITTLE CIN IS ALSO
EVIDENT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE JUST PLAYING THE WAITING GAME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. QSTNRY BNDRY DRAPPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA INVOF OF THE MO/IA BORDER INTO NCENTRAL IL WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECH AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM IRK NWWD INTO
NW MO DURING THE NEXT 2-3HRS AS THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD FROM THE SHRTWV
TROF DIGGING THRU THE UPPER MS VLY SPREADS INTO THAT REGION. WATER
VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UVV
FIELD IS NEARING SW IA ATTM. GIVEN THE EXTREME CAPE AND EFFECTIVE BULK
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND AM EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS. THIS MCS IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO
SW IL...AN AREA WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED VERY WELL ON THE LATEST
SWODY1 MOD RISK AREA. IF THIS SYSTEM IS ANYTHING LIKE THE ONE LAST
NIGHT THAT IMPACTED THE DVN AND ILX CWA...THEN DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70-80 MPH ARE QUITE POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT
RESIDES SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR AND THE LONGEVITY
OF ALL THE ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL FORCING AND THE SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONTAL BNDRY SUGGESTS A SERIES OF MCSS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
REALM...WHILE THESE SYSTEMS ALSO TEND TO GET FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE
ORIGINALLY THINK DUE TO COLD POOL PROCESSES AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST
WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. ALSO WE
COULD SEE AN AIRMASS PULSE STORM EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ERN
OZARKS WHERE A DECENT CU FIELD EXISTS AND IT IS VERY UNSTABLE.

TONIGHTS ACTIVITY TO A LARGE DEGREE WILL DICTATE WHAT HAPPENS ON
TUESDAY. THE SYNOPIC SCALE FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY AT DAYBREAK.
BEST FEELING GIVEN A EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION INVOF OF I-70 IS
THAT THE GREATEST PROB OF PCPN WILL THEN RESIDE ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA. MORE CLOUDS/PCPN IN ADDITION TO THE SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY AND THE END OF THE SHORT HEAT
WAVE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID MS VLY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
SHUNT THE GREATEST PCPN CHANCES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT AND INTO THURS AND FRI THERE ARE THEN
QUESTIONS TO THE LOCATION OF SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF PCPN. NW FLOW
SHORTWV TROFS WILL INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY LIFTING BNDRY AND RESULT
IN PROBABLY SEVERAL MCS...BUT TRACKS AND LOCATIONS AMONG THE MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ALOT OF VARIABILITY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/645 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN IL ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO
SOUTHERN NEB EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY NOON ON TUESDAY.

TPS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-221130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
412 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A FRONT NEAR
THE MISSOURI AND IOWA BORDER...RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE AND
ORGANIZING INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GLASS