Hail in Mississippi, March 29, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASED STABILITY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG AND ERODING MID LEVEL CAP AT AROUND 9KT FT.
THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (DISTURBANCE) IS
ALSO PLAYING IN ROLE IN SUPPORTING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
ON THE BACKSIDE.

MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM EACH NIGHT UNDER DRIER MID
LAYER AIR. THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HOWEVER WILL CUT
BACK ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SO SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW ISOLATED
(10%) AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP AT
THIS TIME. BUT MAY NEED TO ADD ISOLATED IF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
PROVIDES ENOUGH FORCING AND POOLING OF MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION TO
POP. /22

&&

.LONG TERM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER FRONT
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED POP ON FRIDAY...BUT
THIS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ON LATER FCST PACKAGES.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MENTIONED HERE GENERALLY REMAINING NORTH
OF THE FCST AREA...AND WITH OVERALL RIDGING CONTINUING...BASICALLY
LOOKING FOR A CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS. /12

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. AS A RESULT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING DUE TO A BETTER
THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEEDED
FOR MONDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST. /32

&&

.FIRE...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. EXPECT PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  79  59  76 /  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   59  77  59  72 /  10  10  10  05
DESTIN      59  73  60  72 /  10  10  10  05
EVERGREEN   55  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  81  54  77 /  20  10  10  05
CAMDEN      56  80  55  75 /  30  10  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-301200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME WARM AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

MSZ079-292115-
GEORGE-
346 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER GEORGE COUNTY...

AT 338 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST CENTRAL GEORGE COUNTY...AND MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
CENTRAL GEORGE COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

MSZ075-078-292115-
STONE-PERRY-
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER STONE AND PERRY
COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITES CROSSING...AND MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
SOUTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN STONE COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.