Heavy Snow in Minnesota, March 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
629 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.UPDATE...06Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A BIT WETTER AND A BIT FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE TRACKING OF STRONGEST FORCING. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED
PINE COUNTY IN WINTER STORM WARNING...AND SOUTHERN CASS/CROW
WING/NORTHERN AITKIN TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
BE A FACTOR...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS SHOW
IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WAA ZONE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. WHILE MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...OVERALL BROAD STRONG LIFT
SHOULD YIELD EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE DLH FA LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH AXIS STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
UNCERTAINTY TO THE SNOW FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH 00Z GFS BRINGING
BULK OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH THAN 00Z NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN. STRONG
SHORT WAVE /CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
WILL DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND LIFT THROUGH
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH WAA WILL PUSH NORTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ONSET ON SNOW MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS
AFTERNOON AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH. TAKING A LOOK AT
CROSS-SECTIONS /NAM/ ACROSS THIS THERMAL GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SLOPING 2-D FGEN DOES EXIST ALL
ACROSS NW WI TO THE TWIN PORTS. THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT...PER FRONTOLYTIC RESPONSE IN CROSS-SECTIONS...IS LOCATED TO
THE SE OF THE TWIN PORTS LOCAL AREA. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DRY NOSE
STILL AFFECTING THE DLH AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE
STRONGER OMEGA CO-LOCATED WITH FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
EXISTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD SAWYER/PRICE
COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
IN BANDED SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT. THEREFORE THE GRADIENT FOR SNOW
TOTALS LOOKS TO SET UP FROM NNW TO SSE. UNCERTAINTY DOES STILL
EXIST FOR EXACT TOTALS HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY AIR INFLUENCE ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS...AND
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA RESULTING IN
MELTING. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES ATTM...HOWEVER UPGRADES TO PINE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN CASS/CROW WING COUNTIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MID TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NW WI. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN NORTHERN STREAM BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN SEASONABLE AS WELL.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTH AND BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA. VARIOUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...SOUTH DAKOTA
AND MICHIGAN. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN
OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  22  37  18 /  80  80  10  10
INL  36  17  37  17 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  34  22  39  17 /  90  70  10  10
HYR  37  25  36  10 / 100 100  30  10
ASX  35  25  34  16 / 100 100  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
     CDT TUESDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR PINE.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR CROW
     WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-
     WASHBURN.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-LSZ142.

LILES/MELDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
542 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-011030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
542 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WALKER...TO HIBBING...TO SILVER BAY MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM PINE RIVER...TO THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TO HILL CITY TO DULUTH...AND UP TOWARD TWO
HARBORS AND SILVER BAY. 6 TO 11 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING AND CREATE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WIND WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE HEAD
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
AND PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR CARLTON...AITKIN...SOUTHERN
CASS... SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS...REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-011030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
542 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FROM TWO HARBORS...TO
DULUTH...TO SAXON HARBOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND FROM
TWO HARBORS TO GRAND PORTAGE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE
THE LATEST NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OPEN WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SEE THE LATEST OPEN WATERS
FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MELDE/LILES