Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FA BETWEEN TWO ACTIVE WEATHER MAKERS AT THE CURRENT TIME. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN IA
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WERE TAKING SHAPE ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ND. OUR LAPSWRF SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING/MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN MN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z AND ACROSS THE NORTH METRO AND WESTERN WI IN THE 04Z TO 06Z
TIME FRAME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW OUT FOR OUR NW CWA.

ADDITIONALLY...THE NMMWRF SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850MB. IN
FACT...PW IS FORECAST TO DOUBLE FROM 0.60 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MN
TO 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SEEMS THAT THE WORST WOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IA TONIGHT WHERE THE FOCUS IS ON THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WI CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER FORECAST FOR US. WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL VALUES ALONG
WITH SMALL POP CHANCES SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TSRA
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAD POOLED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MARGINAL VFR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TSRA OR HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA LINGERING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING WITH CLOUDS AND
CEILING AT OR ABOVE 4K AGL FEET. SKC OR CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET
AGL OVER THE REST OF THE TAF SITES BY MID MRNG SUNDAY.  SFC WINDS
SHIFTING AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/JVM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1137 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
151645-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1137 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE
GREATEST RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE NORTH
OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO THE TWIN CITIES TO LADYSMITH. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDB/JPR