Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
603 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NEARING A LADYSMITH TO AUGUSTA WI LINE ATTM WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER
FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT. TO THE WEST...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SURFACE AND ALOFT...COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY ENE AND WILL FACTOR
IN OUR WEATHER SCENARIO INTO SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.
SURFACE BASED CAPE ALREADY OVER 1500 J/KG NEAR KAXN AND LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7.5 DEG C/KM. LAPSWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND MOVES THEM INTO OUR NW CWA IN THE
22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME. ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MN.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF US ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND RATHER
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HENCE...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

AN ACTUAL SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MUCH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO THE REGION AND A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. ACTIVITY LINGERS
OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO MONDAY.

THE TREND NEXT WEEK IS FOR RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROFS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN CWA WHERE
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE RIDGE WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PROBLEM..WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NODAK AND NEAR MANITOBA CANADA
...WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AIRMASS WILL
BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE..MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES...WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  CLOUD HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ABOVE 6K FEET AGL. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NEAR KEAU AS WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THERE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/JVM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
125 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM CANBY TO ST CLOUD TO MORA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME...NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

MNZ047-054-055-122315-
LAC QUI PARLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
520 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAC QUI PARLE...WESTERN STEVENS AND
WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 516 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR STRANDBURG. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...BUT MAY
GAIN STRENGTH AND PRODUCE LARGER HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MARIETTA.
  NASSAU.
  BELLINGHAM.
  LOUISBURG.
  APPLETON.
  ALBERTA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

LS