Hail in Minnesota, July 1, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH ND AT MID
AFTERNOON. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SMOKE SEEN IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE FIRES IN NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN FA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT LAPS UA ANALYSIS SHOWING +11 DEG C AIR COVERING FAR
WESTERN MN ATTM. +10 DEG AIR EXPECTED INTO THE TWIN CITIES BY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...LAPS PROFILE SHOWING CIN UP THROUGH ABOUT
600MB WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE. RUC PROFILE
FORECASTS SHOW THE MID LEVEL WARMING WANING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
WITH POSITIVE CAPE VALUES INCREASING. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
MAXIMIZES AROUND 45 KNOTS NEAR KDLH AND NORTHERN WI BY 06Z.
HENCE...EXPECT STORMS UP NORTH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY DLHS
CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WI AND EAST
CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TO THE
NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES TONIGHT. SREF PRECIP PROBABILITIES
HIGHEST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WI CWA AND HAVE INDICATED SOME LIKELY
POPS FOR THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KEAU TO
KAEL BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR (+14 DEG C) SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAP ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY.
A ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND THEN
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL POPS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME QUESTION
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.

&&

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SFC CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR KELO-KDTL
AT 04Z.  ISOLD CONVECTION ON THE BACK END OF THE STRONG FORCING
/UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHEAST MN. EXPECT BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF FA THROUGH
12-14Z.  WILL HOLD ONTO TEMPO TSRA/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT
KSTC-KMSP-KRNH AND KEAU.  FNT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF REGION BETWEEN
15-18Z...WITH PERHAPS SOME CAA CUMULUS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE
AFTERNOON...AND CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET OVER MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
021100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 8 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL DIMINISH WITH EACH PASSING OVERNIGHT HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 8 CORRIDOR IN
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MDB/MTF