Hail in Minnesota, April 24, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...

PRETTY MUCH STEADY AS SHE GOES CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION AS DISCUSSED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
GFS40 HANDLED THE LACK OF MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ALMOST
TO A T...SO THIS WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE GOING FORWARD FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. DRY SLOT SEEN ON IR SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF MN....WITH CONVECTIVE SHIELD OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN THE FORM
OF SHOWERS...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE
ANTICPATED...WITH 850 LIS REMAINING IN THE ZERO TO -3 VARIETY PRIOR
TO 06Z...ESPECIALLY SE OF A CAMBRIDGE TO FAIRMONT LINE. JUST GOT A
REPORT FROM ST JAMES WITH JUST OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO ANOTHER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PRIOR TO DAWN...OVER
MOST LOCALES. USED THE 305K SURFACE AND THETA E ADVECTION FOR
INITIAL PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE FA.
BOTH POINTING TO BEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF MN CWA AND WI
COUNTIES TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG 250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLET ALSO IS
OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM 00-08Z. PARENT SURFACE CYLCONE
ABOVE NW KS WILL RIDE THE INVERTED TROF RAILS AND ENTER THE SE PORTION
OF MN BY SUNRISE ON THE MORROW. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND SURGE SO TO
SPEAK IN RAINFALL PROPENSITIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. 50H TROF TO THE LEE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW INSTIGATING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MN BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND EXTENDING INTO EVENING HORUS. BY MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
50H LOW WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST MN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

OVERALL ITS A MISERABLE DAY FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS. WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP...LO CIGS AND VIS REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
AS THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY.
ONCE THE DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES OVERNIGHT LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN SATURATED. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL WITH
FOG AND MIST SETTING IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
ALSO BE SWAPPING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH...WITH THE GOOD NEWS BEING THAT GUSTS SHOULD DIE
DOWN A BIT. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND ICING WILL BE A CONCERN
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN OUTSIDE OF AREAS
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

AJZ/TRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1114 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
251615-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1114 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER
IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WERE TO BECOME SEVERE...PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL APPEARS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO AN EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN...SNOW...AND
STRONG WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE OR LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN FAR EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH NO IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A VERY LATE SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAIN...BUT THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF A MILACA TO MONTEVIDEO
LINE.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

TRH/MTF/JPR