Thunderstorms developed along and ahead of a cold front moving through Eastern Kentucky on July 13th. Some of the thunderstorms produced very heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed along and ahead of a cold front moving through Eastern Kentucky on July 13th. Some of the thunderstorms produced very heavy rainfall. Runoff of this rainfall from a strip mine caused flash flooding in Pike County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 1:20 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 220 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LINGERS IN THE AREA. AS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE NEAR PERFECT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COOL FRONT...WHICH IS REALLY ONLY DEPICTED BY A WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND SLIGHT WIND SHIFT...DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND TONIGHT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN INTENSITY OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN MODERATE SHOWERS AND DRY CONDITIONS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME... HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCE POPS TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL...QPF VALUES HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY AND A RANGE OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. AREAS FURTHEST EAST SHOULD SEE THE LAST LINGERING PRECIPITATION EXIT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NO REAL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...KEEPING ANY WAVE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES AS PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD START TO SEE A SMALL RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT AS NORTHEAST FLOW SETS IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE ZONES TONIGHT AS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF FOG. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED INTERESTING EXTENDED PACKAGE TODAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR AREA IN A ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW DIRECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEP SOUTH WHERE MODELS...ECMWF MORE CLEARLY AND CONSISTENTLY THAN THE GFS...DEVELOP AN H500 INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD EACH DAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY. GFS SEEMS TO WANT TO GRAB ONTO ECMWF/S SOLUTION... BUT ONLY INTERMITTENTLY. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY REFLECTS A SFC LOW... SIMILAR TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BRINGS IT NORTH TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. BUT EVEN THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT WITH HOW IT HANDLES THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE LOW RACING NORTHWARD ONE RUN...THEN MORE SLOWLY WHILE KEEPING IT FURTHER SOUTH THE NEXT. GFS ENSEMBLE IS NOT MUCH HELP AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE INHERENTLY LOST IN THE PROCESS OF GENERATING MEAN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE DOES SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TREND WITH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AS THE ECMWF. IN THE END DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT EUROPEAN SOLUTION. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH UNCERTAINTY ONLY WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND REACHING FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH PASSING DAY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/ A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. KEPT SHOWERS...INTERMITTENT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS GOING FOR MORE NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THOSE AREAS...MID AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AND WILL EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT THROUGH BEFORE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT CAN DEVELOP. ALSO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT FOG AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN MUCH MORE SPARSE THAN ANTICIPATED. MUCH MORE LIKELY FOG WILL IMPACT EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON RAINFALL WILL HAVE BEEN MORE PLENTIFUL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...RAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-141100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 315 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA BORDERS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SCHOETTMER
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:29 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Runoff from a strip mine caused minor damage to the underpinning of a mobile home and pushed some mud and rock into a garage. Damage also occurred to the Phelps High School baseball field.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2008Every state in 2008This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2008
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 122479.