Heavy Rain in Kentucky, December 24, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING RADAR PICS SHOW WKY W/MOST OF THE RAIN...AND LIGHTNING
PLOT SHOWS ISOLD STROKES INTO SRN PENNYRILE. SPOTTER REPORT
CONFIRMS THUNDER IN TODD COUNTY...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER
THE MODELS CONTINUES MAINLY ERN 1/2 FA EARLY TODAY. MODELS SHOW IT
ALREADY STABILIZING A LITTLE ALOFT OVER OUR WRN COUNTIES SO WE
ELIMINATED ITS MENTION THERE...AS IT IS OUT OF THE MAX ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ZONE...OR WHERE MOST OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS.
SWODY1 LOOKS LIKE IT TRIES TO CAPTURE THIS AS WELL.

WEVE FOLLOWED SREF TIMING AND IT STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH COLD
FROPA/CLEARING ERN FA BY 21Z OR THEREABOUTS. UNTIL THEN EXPECT
CONTINUATION/ MORE OF THE SAME WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EAST TO
LIKELY POPS WEST...DROPPING OFF MARKEDLY IN THE PM AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONAL.
MEANWHILE ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING THE UPPER FLOW BY CHRISTMAS
NIGHT...AND ALONG W/THE DEEPER/WETTER SWLYS...HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
STEW UP SOME RETURN RAIN CHANCES BY LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS RUN IS NO DIFFERENT AND IS IN FACT EVEN STRONGER WITH
THE FRIDAY-POST UPGLIDE...W/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER THU NIGHT-FRI. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
EVOLVES...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
FRI NIGHT-SAT...WHEN INSTABILITY IS PEAKING AND WIND FIELDS
INCREASE. THIS TIME PERIOD THEREFORE OFFERS OUR BEST CHANCE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS...AND WELL CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK THAT
CHANCE ON THE HWO. AT THE LEAST WE SHOULD SEE SOAKING RAINS WITH
1-3 TOTALS WIDESPREAD. WEVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD (THU
NIGHT-SAT) BUT AWAIT COLLABORATIVE COMPROMISE BEFORE SETTLING ON
FINAL NOS.

LOTS OF NEAR TERM EDITS ON TEMPS...ESP THE DIURNAL CURVE WITH THE
HIGH TODAY OCCURRING EARLY/PRE-FROPA...AND THE LOW THU NIGHT
OCCURRING EARLY-MID EVENING FOLLOWED BY RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
BLENDED SREF TEMP/TD FIELDS WITH COLLAB PIC FOR BEST FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. CIGS ALL OVER THE
PLACE...JUMPING AROUND FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND AT TIMES IFR. WILL
LEAVE MVFR CIGS GOING WITH A TEMPO OF IFR. SHRA RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VSBYS REMAINING VFR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE
SHOWERS. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SO
WILL HANDLE WITH A CB. VWPS AT KPAH SHOW 30KTS AT 1000 FT SO WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT TIMES.
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR TO CLEAR THINGS
OUT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
423 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAKES AREA EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE MAY GUST INTO THE 30S
MPH RANGE AT TIMES...AND WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATER TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.