Flood and Hail in Kansas, May 8, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING,
THEN STRONG WINDS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WYOMING AND UTAH WILL BE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING THEN INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY MORNING. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET WAS MERGING WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH JET OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE WAS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 50S WILL SURGE IN FRONT OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE GARDEN
CITY AREA THIS EVENING WITH WARM FRONT AND TRAILING DRYLINE. GOOD
WARM ADVECTION AND POOLING OF MOISTURE WITH STRONG SHEAR ALOFT COULD
PRODUCE A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH STRONG FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE LINEAR MCS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
THE STORMS SHOULD END WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND END
IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY. MODEL OUTPUT OF OVER 2
INCHES IN THE NORTH LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING
SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH SUCH A GOOD COLD POOL IT WILL BE A GOOD PRECIP
GENERATOR. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH POPS GOING TO COVER THIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO MID
50S FAR SOUTHEAST LOOKS GOOD.

ON FRIDAY LOOK FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP A SMALL POP GOING FOR THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH SOME
VORTICITY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW. LOWS IN LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE SAME
AS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY A STRONG AND DEEPER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE DAKOTAS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH INTO WEST
TEXAS. AS THIS MOVES IN THE BY THE AFTERNOON ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST LAYER MOISTURE IN THE NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING IN THE
HAYS TO SAINT JOHN AREAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. WE
MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYS 3-7...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KS SAT NIGHT BEHIND
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT WARM TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRAG
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KS BY MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY MAY 14 TO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MAY 17. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH NO PRECIP. IF
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FURTHER EAST THEN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WOULD OCCUR.

.AVIATION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OR OVER THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 22 AND 03 UTC. CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL BRIEFLY
COME DOWN AS THE STORMS PASS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH GCK
AROUND 03 UTC AND DDC AROUND 04 UTC. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  52  69 /  80  10  10  10
GCK  47  74  49  67 /  80  20  20  10
EHA  47  79  49  69 /  50  30  30  10
LBL  49  79  51  69 /  50  20  20  10
HYS  48  73  50  67 /  80  10  20  20
P28  54  75  55  72 /  60   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
459 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
459 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008 /359 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPACT BUT FORMIDABLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AFTER 3 PM CDT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY, STRONG
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE INITIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. LATE IN THE
EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE
STORMS EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO KANSAS SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER IN THE EVENING (MAINLY AFTER 8 PM CDT) ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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