Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 22 to 23, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

DISCUSSION AND FORECAST GOING OUT EARLY DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT AND LONG LIVED TORNADOES.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS RATHER TELLING IN REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING
WEATHER. NOSE OF 95KT H25 JET WAS PUNCHING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AS
IT ROUNDED THE BASE OF STRONG UPPER ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS POTENT SYSTEM, 145KT JET STREAK WAS MOVING SOUTH
INTO CA. VERY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OF 150 METERS COULD BE SEEN IN
ALBUQUERQUE, NM WITH HEIGHT FALLS OF 120 METERS FROM EASTERN NM WEST
INTO A LARGE PORTION OF CA. H7 TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER SYSTEM
WERE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0C. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 15C AND
ABOVE WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF KS SOUTH WHILE SINGLE DIGITS
READINGS WERE SEEN INTO NE. PLUME OF 10C AND ABOVE ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE ENGULFED THE ENTIRE STATES OF KS, OK AND TX AND NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN NE.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH DRYLINE
FURTHER WEST FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL AND MOVING
EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EJECT S/WVS EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY, UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
INCREDIBLE SHEAR (500M2/S2 0-1KM SRH) IS IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST. THE DRYLINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
BY EVENING. CAP REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW INCREASED CAPE ACROSS THE FA (2000 TO 3000 J/KG). ONCE STORMS
DO GO ALONG THE DRYLINE, THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. NOT ONLY
WILL VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL BE AN ISSUE BUT A FEW TORNADOES
ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRYLINE WILL MOVE WEST ONLY SLIGHTLY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS TIME, THE
DRYLINE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST. BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF NESS CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND AND EAST.
SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THURSDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BY SATURDAY, DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS PLACE
THE EXTREME EASTERN FA IN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DAYS 3-7...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AT 00Z SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING AN
EVER SO SLIGHT RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
EAST BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN IN AMPLIFICATION BUT EXPANDING SOMEWHAT
TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
REGARDLESS, A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH THE PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. AT THE
SURFACE, A GENERAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
PERSISTING NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. AGAIN,
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH DEWPOINTS AT H85 REACHING WELL UP
INTO THE TEENS(C). A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL REMAIN SET UP IN
OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF(HIRES) THEN POINT TO THE
DRYLINE RETREATING ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING OPENING UP MORE
OF A MOISTURE RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
WHICH AGAIN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
STAY WITH CURRENT POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT WARM DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) EAST TO THE UPPER
20S(C) WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGHS TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE
80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH SHOULD HELP COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT BY MID WEEK.
PLAN ON SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER
TODAY WHILE A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES FROM NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO LIBERAL.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  89  68  91 /  60  40  50  30
GCK  63  89  64  89 /  30  20  30  30
EHA  58  91  58  89 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  64  92  62  91 /  30  20  30  20
HYS  65  86  68  89 /  60  50  50  40
P28  69  89  70  92 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-
044-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

FN30/32/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090-231000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-
HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-
BARBER-
1210 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DRYLINE WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 3
PM. THIS DRYLINE BY 3 PM WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR SCOTT CITY TO NEAR
LIBERAL. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY DAMAGING HAIL ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE STRONGEST OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT ANY TORNADO THAT MIGHT DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANT AND LONG LIVED.

ALL PERSONS LIVING EAST OF SCOTT CITY TO NEAR LIBERAL ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SHOULD A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA...IMMEDIATE
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE TAKEN.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL SHIFT WEST AFTER DARK. A
FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM...INITIALLY FROM NEAR SCOTT CITY
TO NEAR LIBERAL AND THEN INTO THE PRATT, LARNED AND HAYS AREA BY
EVENING. SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING FARTHER WEST.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-231000-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-STEVENS-
457 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008 /357 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BOTH A WIND ADVISORY AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
TODAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN
15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A HIGH FIRE DANGER.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN EASTERN
KEARNY...GRANT...AND STEVENS COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY STORM
THAT DOES FROM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY GO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NECESSARY ACROSS EASTERN KEARNY...GRANT
AND STEVENS COUNTIES.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

07/30