High Wind in Kansas, May 2, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE LINGERING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY
AND WINDS.

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
CLOSED OFF PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.
BEST PRESSURE HEIGHT FALLS AT H5 STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS (-70M
AT DODGE CITY) NORTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA (-80M AT NORTH PLATTE)
AND ON INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA (-40M AT ABERDEEN). A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRESSURE HEIGHT RISES AT H5 COVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS BEHIND THE LOW. A +100KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TODAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM IOWA SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EASTERN KANSAS AND DOWN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN IOWA LIFTS NORTH BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES SO, A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL CYCLE AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS (GFS/UKMET POINTING TO H85 WINDS AT +40KTS)
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW FOR
WINDS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
A LINGERING CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MORE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE
CITY...IN WRAP AROUND CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL THEN DIMINISH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A FAIRLY COOL DAY TODAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTING IN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 4C ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TO NEAR 10C IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, A SECONDARY IMPULSE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE FEATURE AND THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLDER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES AT
H85 TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 0C. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND EVEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H85 WILL RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) EAST TO THE MID
TEENS(C) WEST. PLAN TO MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY AND
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO BUT KEEPING LOWS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

DAYS 3-7...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO START THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER, THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING THE UPPER LOW
NEAR SOUTHERN CA. GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES IT SLIGHTLY
SOUTH BY 12Z MON. IT REMAINS OFF OF THE CA COAST WITH S/WVS RIPPLING
THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KS DURING THIS TIME. ECMWF
MOVES SYSTEM ONSHORE TO SOUTHERN CA BY 12Z MON. THIS LEAVES WESTERN
KS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR
SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN CO ON
SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. OVERALL, SUNDAY LOOKS WARM
AND DRY. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
EAST TO THE LOWER 20S WEST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTH
ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY, PLUME
OF 50F DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
QUESTION STILL REMAINS JUST HOW FAST THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
MAKE THEIR RETURN INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ACROSS TX SUNDAY, THIS COULD SLOW MOISTURE RETURN DOWN. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY. A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SITES TODAY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. AS AN
EXITING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 20KT TO 30KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS SOME WRAP AROUND MOVES INTO THE AREA, MVRF CONDITIONS
WOULD DEVELOP. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR UNTIL EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  34  63  39 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  55  34  64  38 /  30  30   0   0
EHA  60  34  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  60  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  53  34  61  38 /  40  40   0   0
P28  67  38  65  42 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.

&&

FN32/30/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
446 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
446 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008 /346 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM IOWA SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS
AND DOWN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE REGION TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE LOW PERSISTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SPEEDS REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING IS EXTREMELY
DISCOURAGED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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