Hail in Kansas, June 16, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ERUPTED JUST NORTH OF I-70 EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM JUST EAST OF HAYS EASTWARD. STORMS APPEAR TO BE
FIRING ALONG THE 85O MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY UVV IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AS LOW LEVEL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IMPACTS THE FRONT. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA BUT A FEW ECHOES HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP
OVER ELLIS COUNTY SO THINK THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR AN ELEVATED
STORM THERE AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING UNTIL THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE EAST.

SURFACE OBS AND THE 11-3.9 ENHANCEMENT SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM SHOWS THE
STRATUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA BY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME EROSION OF THE STRATUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT FEEL IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH 80. WILL TRIM A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF OF MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH THAT IN MIND.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM COULD HELP INITIATE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS THERE WITH DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL
MORE OR LESS HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POPS IN THE SOUTH THEN AS WELL.

DAYS 3-7...

THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD TO PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE 30 POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE STEADY DIET OF
SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.  EVENTUALLY...THE NORTHERN POLAR JET WILL REALLY
TAKE OVER AGAIN WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DDC CWA.  THIS WILL PROBABLY PUT AN END TO THE
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE AT THE VERY END
OF THIS TIME FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WEEK-2 TIME FRAME.
ONE OR TWO OF THESE DAYS THIS WEEK...WHETHER IT BE WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, FRIDAY ETC...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A VERY IMPRESSIVE
LONG-LIVED MCS THAT WOULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS.  IF ONE
WERE TO READ THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND FORMER 12Z ECMWF MODELS
LITERALLY, THEN THURSDAY MAY BE THIS DAY...AS BOTH MODELS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL LOWER TROP FRONTOGENESIS WITH ONE OF THESE JETLETS
ROUNDING THE RIDGE...AND OF COURSE GOBS OF CONVECTIVE QPF.  GOING
INTO MORE DETAIL WOULD BE NOISE AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT QUITE WELL FROM
JUST NORTH OF GCK TO SOUTH OF HYS AS OF 0700 UTC.  ONCE THE STRATUS
GETS INTO ALL THE TAF SITS...IT WILL STAY FOR QUITE AWHILE.  IN
FACT...LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.  SOME SCATTERED SPOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THESE HOLES WILL FORM.  MID-JUNE
SUN CAN GO A LONG WAYS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REALLY BE BATTLING A COOL,
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A PESKY HIGH CENTERED RIGHT OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
GO...THE INITIAL VERY EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK...WILL BE MONITORING
THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY FOR THUNDERSTORM AMENDMENTS TO THE EARLY
MORNING TAF, MAINLY AT HYS. UMSCHEID

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  60  81  61 /  10  30  30  30
GCK  76  59  81  63 /  10  30  30  30
EHA  80  62  83  64 /  20  40  30  40
LBL  80  62  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
HYS  73  58  78  58 /  30  10  20  20
P28  78  62  81  62 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN02/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
700 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171200-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
700 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008 /600 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE AREA FROM WAKEENEY
AND HAYS TO JETMORE...LARNED AND ST JOHN. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE OUT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD/UMSCHEID