Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 30 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION OVER INDIANA IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NW PORTION OF THE
FA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO MID LEVEL CAP.
STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SVR WX. BACKED OFF THE
SVR WORDING TO THE NW PART OF THE FA.

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...GRADUALLY INCREASED THE POPS AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS...CATEGORICAL...IN THE
N...TAPERING DOWN TO CHC IN THE S.

KEPT MIN TEMPS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE FA...RUNNING NR
I-71...AT BEGINNING OF SATURDAY. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
S AND E EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH A DRYING TREND IN THE W DURING
THE AFTN AS FNT PUSHES E ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO WORK IN. LINGERED CHC
POPS IN THE E WITH SFC TROF SWING DOWN THRU NRN OH INTO CENTRAL OH.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR SAT HIGHS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NGT. IN NW FLOW ALOFT...S/W DROPS
SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTN. SECONDARY SFC FRONT TO DROP
SOUTH THRU THE FA AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH CHC POPS ACRS
THE FA. MAV LOWS SAT NGT LOOK REASONABLE...BUT WENT WITH COOLER
MET HIGHS ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY IS AN EXTENSION OF YESTERDAYS WITH THE
CONSENSUS THAT THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AND HPC GUIDANCE IS
THE COMMON GROUND TO START FROM.

MEAN H5 FLOW WILL START OUT FROM THE NW UNTIL A LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST/UPPER MIDWEST...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOICE...TRACKS
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY BUT THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS OCCURRING IS ENTIRELY TOO
LENGTHY PER HPC GRAPHICS TO BE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF AN ACTUAL WX
PATTERN. BELIEVE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON TUES AND LIFT
NWD ON WED. HPCS GRAPHIC SFC FEATURE AT 12Z THURS SHOWS WMFNT
FURTHER SW FROM PREVIOUS 24 HRS WHICH SHOULD BE UNLIKELY.

REGARDLESS OF THIS...HAD TO GO COOLER ON WED THAN ON TUES WITH CWA
BEING ON THE COLD SIDE OF WMFNT. COULD NOT ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS
ON WED FROM TUES HIGHS WITH THE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER. THIS
WAS THE ONLY LARGER DISCREPANCY I HAD WITH SURROUNDING FCST
OFFICES/HPC DURING THIS TIME...SUBSEQUENTLY THE ONLY SPOT WHERE I
HAD CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN A METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO TRY AND IMPROVE
ON. THOUGHT THAT LOWER 80S WERE TOO WARM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S WERE TOO MOIST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...JUST FROM THE PATTERN
OVER OHVLY THE PAST FEW WEEKS. DID NOT SEE TREMENDOUS SIGNS OF
STRONG RIDGING AND OPEN GULF FOR THESE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BE
REALIZED/EXPECTED. WOULD HEDGE DRIER AND COOLER IN THE EXTENDED IF
IN ANY DIRECTION...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO DIVERGE FROM
COMMON GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST....AND THEY SAG ACROSS THE
TERMINALS 05Z-08Z...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH 10Z-12Z. TIMING WILL BE
HONED...AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWING SOMEWHAT.
WILL KEEP VCTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AMENDING AS IT BECOMES MORE
IMMINENT AND TIMEABLE. MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 14Z. WINDS WILL VEER
TO WEST SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1112 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-010315-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-
1112 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-010315-
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1112 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO OHIO. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.