Damaging Winds in Illinois, February 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. WE WILL BRIEFLY DISCUSS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW
TO NEAR INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP H25 TROUGH WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH A STRONG 120+ KNOT SPEED MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

AS THIS SPEED MAX AND THE SURFACE LOW APPROACH THIS EVENING...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. STRONG BACKED WIND
PROFILES...RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP-LAYERED BULK SHEAR AND LOW-
LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
COLD FRONT. LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF KPAH INDICATES A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE H7 LIKELY INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. AS LIFT INCREASES THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THIS CAP SHOULD ERODE BY 00Z. GIVEN
THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...CELLS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE
LINE OF FORCING SUGGEST THE CELLS WILL HAVE A BROAD WARM SECTOR
TO TRAVERSE...THUS A FEW LONG-TRACK VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE EVEN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
FROM SPC FOR MORE DETAILS.

BOTH NAM AND RUC MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
CONSIDERABLY...AND AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE EVENT MAY STILL BE
ONGOING AT MIDNIGHT. AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
AND RESULT IN A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...THE MODE OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR IN NATURE.
HOWEVER..ENOUGH SHEAR WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO SUSTAIN EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE QUAD STATE AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE
WABASH RIVER AND KENTUCKY LAKES REGION TO BETTER BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WHILE MOST OF THE WRAP-AROUND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...TWO MORE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
HEARTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ONE LATE THURSDAY AND THE
OTHER LATE FRIDAY. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS...SO WE DO NOT HAVE A MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FOR EITHER EVENT AT THIS TIME. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...WE ADDED
A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
TUESDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WE GENERALLY UTILIZED THE
NAM 2 METER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OWING TO THE
ANTICIPATED NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WE TRANSITIONED TO A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WE RELIED
HEAVILY ON HPC GUIDANCE. THIS DID RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS LIKELY THIS EVENING WHEN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPORARY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. OWB AND EVV
MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL AROUND 3 AM WED. THE AIRMASS WILL
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IFR/MFR CIGS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-
     WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-PERRY IL-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-
     WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

PUBLIC...PRESLEY
AVIATION...SHANKLIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
123 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-061030-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
123 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO VIENNA
ILLINOIS...TO MARION KENTUCKY...TO NEAR HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
THEY MAY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THERE MAY BE A SQUALL LINE WHICH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THIS EVENING...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
EXITING THE AREA AROUND 2 OR 3 IN THE MORNING.

THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 4PM AND 2AM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT TORNADIC STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DEXTER
MISSOURI...TO CAIRO ILLINOIS...TO BOONVILLE INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DUE TO THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME RIVERS MAY GO ABOVE
FLOOD STATE DURING THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO ANY RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

ALSO...ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO STREET FLOODING OR ROAD
CLOSURES ARE ENCOURAGED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
356 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

KYZ001>006-008-009-052225-
BALLARD KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-FULTON KY-GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-
MARSHALL KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
356 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WEST
KENTUCKY...

AT 355 PM...RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. THEY WILL REACH FULTON AND GRAVES COUNTIES BY 415 PM. THESE
STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

PS/ML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

KYZ001>006-008-009-052330-
BALLARD KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-FULTON KY-GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-
MARSHALL KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
425 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WEST
KENTUCKY...

AT 425 PM...RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. THEY WILL REACH COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER BY 445 PM.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
541 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             SEDALIA                 36.64N 88.61W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

&&

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