High Surf in Hawaii, November 13 to 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
920 PM HST WED NOV 12 2008

.UPDATE...ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. VOG WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 830 PM...
WINDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH BECOME QUITE LIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS THE SYNOPTIC WIND DIRECTION HAS SHIFTED MORE SOUTHEAST
IN OUR VICINITY. EXPECT LOCAL LAND BREEZES TO BECOME DOMINATE AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS REACHED THE BIG ISLAND
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS NOT BRING MUCH IN TERM OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK LIKE THE CLOUDS ARE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE
SUMMITS THIS EVENING...AS WEATHER REPORTS FROM OBSERVATORIES
INDICATE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING
THERE...THUS HAVE TO BE CONCERN ABOUT ICING AT THE SUMMIT. HAVE
UPDATED THAT ZONE TO INCLUDE MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD TO MAUI AND
MOLOKAI UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. OAHU HAS ALSO SEE ITS
SHARE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE WINDWARD KOOLAU FROM
KAAAWA TO KAHUKU. HAVE TO BEAR A CLOSER WATCH ON THIS ALSO...AS THAT
AREA OF OAHU IS PRONE TO CONTINUOUS CLOUDS BUILDUP AND RAIN UNDER
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. AT LEAST THE AIR MASS IS STILL SOMEWHAT STABLE
AND IT HAS BEEN RATHER DRY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THAT
AREA...SO EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM.

A COLD FRONT FAR THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT.
IT WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO BE MORE
PRONOUNCED...AND RESULTING IN A MORE CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE AREA WITH CLOUD AND SHOWER BUILDUPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE WINDWARD KOOLAU ON OAHU WHERE A NIGHT
TIME MAXIMUM OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. FORECAST CHARTS DO
SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AS WELL AS AIR MASS BECOMING MORE
UNSTABLE...WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN.

LATEST RUNS OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS AT LEAST SHOW SLIGHT AGREEMENT
UPON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI. THAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH. THAT WILL HAVE A BIG
DIFFERENCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM THE FRONT WILL
REACH. ON THE OTHER HAND...ALL MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN OF TRADE
WINDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
CONTAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS GFS KEEP DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW RIGHT ALONG THE
DISSIPATING FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
FORECAST INDICATE JUST A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH NO SIGN OF ANY LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. SHALL LET CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST AS
IS PENDING NEW MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...
READINGS FROM BUOY 51001 REVEALED THE INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL TO BE
LARGER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND
FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI EFFECTIVELY AT MIDNIGHT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY POSTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SWELL REACHES THE
NORTHERN ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST THURSDAY KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS.

&&

HUI