High Surf in Hawaii, January 9 to 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED JAN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE MEANDERING A COUPLE HUNDRED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT TRADE WINDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE...
LEADING TO A LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN THAT WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS TO AFTERNOON HOURS. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PEAKING EARLY
THURSDAY. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RATHER DRY AND STABLE LAND-SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING
WINDWARD MAUI AND MOLOKAI...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SCANT...THANKS TO MEAGER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ABOUT ONE INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND
STABLE CONDITIONS CREATED BY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGING IS REFLECTED IN AN INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 5500 FT
ACCORDING TO RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA AND 12Z SOUNDINGS. LAND BREEZES
WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AROUND MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR. SKIES WILL
RAPIDLY CLEAR DURING THE EVENING AS LAND BREEZES SET UP...WITH
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS WITH A LAND-SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER NORTH
OF THE STATE AS A PAIR OF FRONTS STALL AND DISSIPATE A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TRADE
WINDS FOR THE BIG ISLAND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES FOR
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LAND-SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...
FEATURING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE
FRONTS TOWARDS THE AREA WILL DEEPEN NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...GRADUALLY
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS ALREADY CAUSED SOME COOLING ALOFT ACCORDING TO
THE LIHUE SOUNDING AND HAS GENERATED SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER MAUI
COUNTY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RAISE THE
INVERSION...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES...BUT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CHANGING LITTLE...
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD...PUSHING THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE MODEST...WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING A SHOT OF STRONG AND
COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS EXTENDS FROM A STORM PASSING 1500 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH
BUOY 51001 OUT OF COMMISSION...WE WILL GO WITH THE WAVE WATCH III
TIMING...WHICH BRINGS WARNING LEVEL SURF TO NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY SUNDOWN THEN TO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. A HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
BEING PARTIALLY BLOCKED...THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF BEGINNING THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN POSTED DUE TO THE LARGE OPEN
OCEAN SWELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WROE