High Surf in Hawaii, December 24 to 28, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED DEC 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND LATER
THIS WEEK CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A
BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN A TRADE WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AN UPPER LOW IS
SEEN SPINNING ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS LOW WESTWARD WHERE IT
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS. THE DESTABILIZING EFFECT
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY BEING BLOWN
OVER LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST END
OF THE STATE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER LATER THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TAKES UP VICINITY FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM VARIED FROM
ISLAND TO ISLAND WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS RECORDED OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. OVER KAUAI THE HIGHEST TOTALS WERE 0.89 INCHES AT MOUNT
WAIALEALE WITH 0.24 INCHES AT WAILUA. OVER OAHU THE HIGHEST TOTALS
WERE 0.44 INCHES AT THE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM GAGE AND 0.30 INCHES
AT THE OAHU FOREST NWR GAGE. OVER MOLOKAI THE HIGHEST TOTAL WAS AT
MAKAPULAPAI WHERE 0.10 INCHES FELL. NO RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE GAGES OVER LANAI OR KAHOOLAWE. OVER MAUI THE HIGHEST TOTAL
WAS 4.07 INCHES AT THE PUU KUKUI GAGE AND 0.90 INCHES AT THE WEST
WAILUAIKI GAGE. OVER THE BIG ISLAND THE HIGHEST TOTALS WERE 0.52
INCHES AT HILO AIRPORT FOLLOWED BY 0.44 INCHES AT PAHOA. FOR A
COMPLETE RUNDOWN PLEASE REFER TO THE HAWAII RAINFALL SUMMARY PRODUCT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE USUAL WINDY ZONES. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO SOME OTHER ZONES DUE THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN SEAS TO AROUND 10 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EXPOSED WINDWARD WATERS.

A SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL HAS BUILT OVERNIGHT REQUIRING A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. ALSO A SERIES OF
RATHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELLS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST THURSDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

BURKE