High Surf in Hawaii, December 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
433 AM HST THU DEC 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG KONA LOW NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY EXTENDS
FROM KAUAI TO MAUI...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A KONA LOW
REMAINS 650 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. WINDS OVERNIGHT AT LIHUE
AIRPORT GUSTED TO 50 MPH WHILE ON OAHU...MAKUA RANGE AND KANEOHE
HAVE GUSTED UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN
BLUSTERY TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE KONA LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH. A WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
HALEAKALA AS WELL AS NIIHAU KAUAI AND MOST OF OAHU.

THE HEAVY RAINS REACHED BOTH KAUAI AND OAHU OVERNIGHT...AND HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST KAUAI HAS RECEIVED MOST
RAIN THUS FAR WITH GAGES IN THAT AREA REPORTING 2 TO 4 INCHES
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM. THE AREA CONTINUES TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN
AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS OF 410 AM. THE HEAVY
SHOWERS REACHED OAHU NEAR 3 AM AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER WEST SIDE AND NORTH SHORE WITH DERIVED RAIN
RATES UP TO 7 INCHES PER HOUR. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU AS OF 415 AM.

HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR
EASTWARD MARCH AND REACH MOLOKAI LANAI AND MAUI LATER THIS
MORNING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MAUI
COUNTY AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE KONA LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTH...BUT THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA...AND A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
POSITIONED WEST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS AND THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL
LEAD TO A SHOWERY PATTERN STATEWIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
IF THE MODELS PERSIST IN SHOWING A VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY PRODUCING STEEP...SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES.

A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS UPCOMING SWELL WILL BE FROM
THE KONA LOW NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. SURF HEIGHTS MAY REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-
OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE
MOUNTAINS.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM HST THIS MORNING FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

MORRISON