Drought in Georgia, September 1 to 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
941 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE AREA. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA COULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE TONIGHT AND
CONDUCIVE TO LINGERING/CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC-700 MB WILL RESULT IN TERRAIN LIFT AIDING SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 00 UTC OBSERVED SNDGS SHOWING PWATS OF ABT
1.80 INCHES...OR ABT 160-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL...HENCE THE ONGOING
LCLY HVY RAIN THREAT. OTHERWISE...VARYING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
ENCROACHING CI SHIELD FROM GUSTAV WILL GIVE WAY TO OVERNIGHT
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE LATE SUMMER NORMALS. PERSISTENT ENELY FLOW
SHOULD PUSH THE CLOUDS AND ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP GRADUALLY OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS DOWN
A CATEGORY TOWARD CLIMO ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING MID0-WEEK...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CWFA...BRINGING AN END TO THE CHANCES
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN PLACE...LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY...AS
HEIGHTS RISE UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON HAND THU WITH
MID/ATLANTIC HIGH RETREATING NORTH A BIT BUT STILL DOMINATING THE
CAROLINA REGION. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP SUBSIDENCE DRY LAYER
OVERHEAD AND WILL EXPECT SOME MIXING TO KEEP RH LEVELS FAIRLY LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING NORMAL
LEVELS IN GOOD SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER WILL EXPECT INCREASING CI
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF HANNA. THE 12Z GFS
CONTINUES WELL NORTH AND FAST WITH THE HANNA TRACK THAN THE HPC
OFFICIAL TRACK AND THE REGIONAL TROPICAL MODELS...SO WILL SIDE WITH
THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN RUN OF THE 00Z ECMWF FOR LATTER
EXTENDED PERIOD GUIDANCE.

IN ESSENCE...THE GFS SOUNDINGS WERE CONSIDERED BUT ADJUSTED AHEAD IN
TIME BY ABOUT 12 HOURS AND WEST ABOUT 100 MILES. THIS SCENARIO
INCREASES CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 12Z FRI AND BRINGS
PRECIP BANDS TO THE EASTERN ZONES AND UPSLOPE REGIONS BY 18Z FRI.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES OVER KGSP...EVEN ON THE
EASTERN MOST GFS. HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY PROBABLE WITH THESE
TROPICAL BANDS BUT THE SYSTEM AS WHOLE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FA
FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SAT AFTERNOON. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
WILL BE A REAL CONCERN. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A 12 HOUR WINDOW
LATE FRI WITH A 50 KT H9 JET PASSING OVERHEAD...SO HIGH GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ITS TOO EARLY TO DEPICT
THESE WINDS IN THE GRID GRAPHICS...HOWEVER THE AFM AND PFM PRODUCTS
WILL ADVERTISE GUST POTENTIALS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PULL THE REMNANTS OF HANNA NORTH WITH
BROAD OHIO VALLEY TROF AND BOTH BUILD IN STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE IN BY SAT EVENING. THE 40 POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR SAT...BUT
SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT PERIOD WILL SEE ONLY ISOL
CHANCES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST FLOW RETURNING THROUGH SUN. WITH
ALL THE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH SUN. MINS ARE EXPECTED A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED...LOCALLY ROBUST...GUSTY WIND PRODUCING TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CVRG AND INTENSITY AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON...WITH JUST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HITTING
THE PROBABILITIES FOR RESTRICTIVE CIGS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE HARDER
AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CLOUD LAYER FOR THOSE SITES WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING JUST VFR STRATOCU. WILL PLAN ON LEAVING
GOING VSBY FCST AS IS...MVFR OR WORSE LIMITED TO JUST KAVL.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...FROM MID-MORNING
MONDAY AND THRU THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRYING UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-010900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
456 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

NCZ069>072-010000-
CABARRUS-GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
700 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GASTON...MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND WESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
EDT...

AT 659 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUNTERSVILLE...AND A SECOND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF HARRISBURG. BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING
WEST AT 14 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE AND UNC CHARLOTTE. IF THESE
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL REACH STANLEY AND CENTER CITY
CHARLOTTE BY 8 PM.

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

SCZ003-006-007-012-013-010000-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
705 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...NORTHERN
LAURENS...SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR A SERIES OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GREER...PAULINE AND JONESVILLE MOVING WEST
AT 16 MPH.

* THESE STORMS WILL REACH TAYLORS...SPARTANBURG AND MOORE BY 8 PM.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RWH