Tropical Storm in Florida, September 8 to 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
824 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE EFFECTS
OF HURRICANE IKE ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST NIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BKN DECK OF MVFR STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH AN OVC CS DECK ALSO
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHRA/TSRA BECOMING MORE PREVALENT LATER THIS EVENING AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AT KAPF...PREVAILING VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THREAT FOR TSRA AND MVFR CIGS INCREASING
LATER ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 10/00Z AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM ENE TO ESE/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 25G35 AT THE MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TO 20G30 AT
KPBI AND 15G25 AT KAPF.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE HAS EMERGED OFF THE SOUTH CUBA COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THANKS TO THE LARGE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THIS IS BEING RAPIDLY
ERODED FROM THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON LATEST LOOPS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT OUTER BAND FROM IKE IS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

AS IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST...OUTER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE WNW ACROSS SOUTH FL...BUT DUE TO MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SYSTEM IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH NORTHWARD
PROGRESS SIGNIFICANT BANDS WILL MAKE TONIGHT...BUT NEVERTHELESS
THE INCREASING ESE WIND FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FL. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE IN BANDS MAY BE ABLE
TO MIX DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH GIVEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.
AMOUNT OF BANDING SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS IKE TURNS TO THE
WNW ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA AND FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE
ESE...LEADING TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITHIN ANY
BANDS...HOWEVER DUE TO THEIR FAST MOVING NATURE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK. HOWEVER...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL
IN SOME AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS SET UP...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF BANDS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
IN UNIFORM/DEEP-LAYERED ESE FLOW. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED 20-25 MPH AT MOST EAST COAST SITES AS WELL AS NAPLES...
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EVEN IN ABSENCE OF SHOWERS. WILL LET
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE AS A RESULT. WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THUS THE DECISION TO EXTEND THE WIND
ADVISORY BEYOND THE CURRENT 2 AM EXPIRATION WILL BE MADE LATER
THIS EVENING ONCE LATEST WIND TRENDS CAN BE DETERMINED. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
SUNSHINE AND TURBULENT MIXING OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.

THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH THE THREAT BEING GREATEST FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN IKE MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CWA AND THUS THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
STRONGEST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-3KM SRH RANGING FROM
150-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD DEPENDING ON
WHETHER THE NAM OR GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VERIFY. THE THREAT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
ALONG BOTH COASTS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST.

BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IKE WILL BE MOVING WNW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...LEAVING SOUTH FL IN A DEEP-LAYERED
ESE/SE FLOW IN BETWEEN IT AND LARGE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND WITH HIGH PWATS...SO POPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO
LEVELS. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE
RIDGE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...LEADING TO SOME
REDUCTION OF POPS AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASE A LITTLE.

MARINE...
NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS FOR THE GULF WATERS AND SCA FOR ALL ZONES. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25KTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ATL. LEG, LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, AND NEAR SHORE GULF...WITH AROUND 30KTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AT LEAST WITH SLOW LESSENING ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 8-12FT IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...HIGHEST
SOUTH...WITH A 3-5FT SE SWELL POSSIBLE. GULF SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ON TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE CENTER
OF IKE RE-EMERGES IN THE GULF. A SW SWELL WILL THEN IMPACT THE
GULF WATERS WED-FRI AT LEAST AS THEY ORIGINATE FROM NEAR IKES
CENTER AND RADIATE OUTWARD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  86  80  88 / 50 70 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  87  81  88 / 60 70 50 60
MIAMI            82  86  80  88 / 60 70 50 60
NAPLES           75  91  77  91 / 40 60 40 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ073-FLZ075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ072-FLZ074-FLZ172-
     FLZ173-FLZ174.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ068-FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
     GMZ676.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-091330-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER/MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC, BISCAYNE BAY, AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS...
...WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF BROWARD, MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE IMPACTS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM HURRICANE IKE, PLEASE REFER TO
THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN MIAMI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK. AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCAL STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF THREE INCHES, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH, AND ANY
CLOUD SIGNATURES SUGGESTING ROTATION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

DG/PS