Flash Flooding in Florida, October 4 to 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2008

.UPDATE...SENT JUST A QUICK UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
INCREASING POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM
BEACH...WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES...AND DECREASED POPS A TAD
SE COAST...BUT DID NOT GO AS LOW AS I WAS TEMPTED TO GO...IN CASE
THERE IS RE-DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ALREADY OUT. /DG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYERED BOUNDARY MOISTURE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FORECAST PWATS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 2.3 INCHES AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. BUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LINGERING MOISTURE
AND DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY THE PWATS
DECREASE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
WITH ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

MARINE...
WINDS WERE FORECAST TO REACH THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING BUOYS INDICATE THERE IS AN INCREASING TREND
IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE
BAY...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE
SCA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  86  77  87 / 60 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  86  78  87 / 60 50 30 30
MIAMI            76  86  76  87 / 60 50 30 30
NAPLES           72  86  73  89 / 50 40 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-051100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
348 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2008

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ATLANTIC COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS.

FLOODING: THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS.

WAVES: INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

RIP CURRENTS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK, THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING RISK OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.