Wildfire in Florida, May 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY BENIGN WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S FLA
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW AS STRONG MID/UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN GOFMEX. STRONG SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE DESERT SW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WX FOR S FLA. AT THE SFC, BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM SHOW THE WEAK SFC TROUGH JUST OFF THE SE CST ERODING AS SFC
RIDGE OVER N FLA GETS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH AND GENERAL SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE SE FLOW GETS BETTER
ESTABLISHED, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN A FEW
SHRA MAY DEVELOP WITH THE NAM12 BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SETUP. AS ALWAYS, MODELS TEND TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO FAST AND DO NOT PLAN ON GOING WITH THE HIGHER MET POP GUIDANCE
BUT STICKING CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS.

IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK SFC
FRONT TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALSO
SHIFT THE SFC RIDGE BACK TO THE FL STRAITS WITH SW FLOW RETURNING. THIS
MAY INCREASE THE MOISTURE A LITTLE WITH THE MEX SHOWING SCT POPS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT DRYING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST SITES WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH 01Z...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS THEREAFTER UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
REGION...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRES ESTABLISHES ITSELF N OF
AREA...WITH SW SEABREEZE AT KAPF EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF FOUR FT OR LESS. THE
WINDS WILL BEGIN AS EAST TO SE BUT THEN VEER TO THE SW TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE FL STRAITS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES FOR
THURSDAY AND NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  85  74  88 / -  10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  74  88 / -  10 10 20
MIAMI            74  86  74  88 / -  10 10 20
NAPLES           69  87  73  87 / 0  10 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
     FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073-FLZ075.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...59/RM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
911 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-080000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
911 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VISIBILITY: LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND SMOKE MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS GLADES AND NORTHERN
HENDRY COUNTIES.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.