Heavy Rain in Florida, July 12 to 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
153 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF FEATURES...BUT IT APPEARS AFTER
THIS AFTERNOONS BOUT OF STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE NEXT FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND APPROACHING THE FORT MYERS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE GULF NORMALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE...SO HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD FALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD INLAND.

ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FIRST WAVE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN
LEVY COUNTY...BUT REMAINING BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINS TO OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

THE NEXT BATCH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AGAIN APPROACHING 2 INCHES OR SO ALONG THE COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY SO LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANY
GIVEN TIME. AFTER ALL IS SET AND DONE...WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED ON ANY GIVEN DAY AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE HELD DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED AS 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN
LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF. IN GENERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA INTO TUESDAY THEN
BECOME CUTOFF WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER FLORIDA
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE RATHER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID-WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AT ALMOST ANYTIME. THEN AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTH AND A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP LATE IN
THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING MID-WEEK WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT INLAND AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE FORT
MYERS AREA DURING SUNDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE TO MARINERS
OVERALL...THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL POSE A HAZARD.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RAIN CHANCES RUN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  87  76  87 /  60  60  40  60
FMY  74  87  74  88 /  40  50  30  60
GIF  73  88  73  90 /  50  60  30  60
SRQ  74  85  75  87 /  60  60  40  60
BKV  71  88  72  89 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  77  86 /  60  60  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122015-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
402 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 50 MPH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS WHICH WILL BRING
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERSECTIONS AND LOW LYING
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY...THEN CONTINUING SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY
RAIN...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

REYNES