Drought in Florida, January 1 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...FREEZE LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE...

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE GLADES/HENDRY TUES NIGHT/WED
MORNING AND ALL AREAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...

.UPDATE...GET READY FOR THE COLD AFTER A VERY WARM END TO
07...TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE BY NEW YEARS NIGHT. STRONG COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL PLOW SE...REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON...AND CLEARING THE ENTIRE PENINSULA TUE
EVENING. COLD AIR WILL SURGE SE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH WIND CHILLS BECOMING QUITE A FACTOR OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR
AREAS BY WED MORNING...GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES...WHERE A WIND
CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 ALL AREAS ON
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON SO FAR WITH FREEZING TEMPS INTERIOR. UNLIKE SOME PREVIOUS
FREEZES...THIS ONE LOOKS ADVECTIVE RATHER THAN RADIATIVE...MEANING
WINDS WILL BRING THE FREEZING TEMPS SOUTH RATHER THAN RADIATIVE
PROCESSES.

A FREEZE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND
COLLIER...AND INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE UPDATED
FREEZE OUTLOOK (MIAWSWMFL) FOR MORE DETAILS. A FREEZE WATCH LIKELY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FREEZE FOR INTERIOR LOCALES...AND SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING TEMPS AT 7 AM THURSDAY RANGE FROM 70-90%
GLADES/HENDRY AND NORTHERN INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES...TO CHANCE
POPS REST OF INTERIOR. 30% EVEN AT COASTAL COLLIER...AND LATEST
GFS/NAM MOST IS SHOWING 33 AT NAPLES. SREF EVEN HAS 20% FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND SOME OF THE
COOP GUIDANCE SUCH AS AT CORAL SPRINGS IS SHOWING 32.
THUS...MENTIONED IN THE FREEZE OUTLOOK THAT NAPLES AREA COULD BE
NEAR FREEZING AS WELL AS ISOLATED LOCALES OVER THE OUTER SUBURBS
OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A FROST
POSSIBILITY WHERE TEMPS DO NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT THIS LOOKS ONLY
POSSIBLE IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS SINCE THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES. SO FREEZE IS OF MOST CONCERN.

NOT ONLY THE FREEZE...BUT WIND CHILLS ARE OF CONCERN TOO ALL AREAS
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING - RANGING FROM THE TEENS OVER GLADES COUNTY
TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER 30S FLL/MIA METRO AREA. A WIND
CHILL WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED AREA WIDE AT LATER FCST
ISSUANCES...AND LATER DOWN THE ROAD ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS.

NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST AS ALL LOOKS ON
TRACK. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. THE
WELL ADVERTISED STRONG FRONT IS STILL IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. THERE IS LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY DENSE AND IS
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENTER SOUTH
FLORIDA BY 12Z AND PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007/

DISCUSSION...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS COVERING ALL
OF S FL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LIGHT FLOW AHEAD OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FL... HOWEVER IF THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA. ALSO A FEW MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AS THE DAY BEGINS ON TUESDAY THE MUCH ADVERTISED SECOND PUSH OF
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AND INTO THE LAKE REGION. THIS FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE STATE AROUND MID
DAY. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS ON TUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE DAY BUT BY EVENING THE
PLUNGE WILL BEGIN AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. THE BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS ON WED MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY, BUT WITH
THE WINDS TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE LOW 30S... A WIND CHILL
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REASON FOR WED MORN.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL HAVE A FIRM
GRIP ON S FL. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 SOUTH OR THE MID 50S NORTH. ATTM THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS AT EVERY SITE EXCEPT
FOR FLL.

THE SOUTH FLORIDA COLD SPELL DOESNT STOP THERE... WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN
STORE SINCE THIS PAST FEBRUARY. BELOW FREEZING TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE WEST
COAST, AND PATCHY FROST MAY EVEN CREEP INTO SOME OF THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST METROS. A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BY FUTURE SHIFTS.

DURING THURSDAY THE WINDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE COLD HIGH SHIFTS OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL
BEGIN A MODERATING TREND ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THIS MAY ALSO BRING
IN A FEW SHOWERS TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FEW/SCT CU BETWEEN 2.5-4 KFT AND SCT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT ALL SITES.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON IS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE
VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT KAPF.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT VFR CIGS /070-130/ TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.  ONSHORE FLOW ALONG BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GIVE WAY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER TO NW AROUND 12Z AT KAPF...13Z AT KPBI...14Z AT KFLL/KFXE...AND
15Z AT KMIA/KOPF/KTMB.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE VCSH AT ALL SITES FOR THE
PERIOD FOLLOWING THIS WIND SHIFT.  70/DD

MARINE...THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
INTENSE WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RAMP UP. SCA IS POSTED FOR THE
OFFSHORE GULF FIRST DURING TUE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED IN PROGRESSION
BY EVERY OTHER ZONE THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL NEAR 40 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE 12 TO 14
FEET RANGE IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE DRIER
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RHS IN THE UPPER 20 TO LOW 30S
ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS WARRANT THE WATCH. BY THURSDAY THE WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY, HOWEVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE LEFT WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RHS TANK ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE RECOVERED
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LESS CONCERN.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-
     FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ630-AMZ651-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ650-AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ656-GMZ657.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1005 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-010630-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1005 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...FREEZE EXPECTED PORTIONS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...
...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES TUE NIGHT, ALL AREAS WED NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VISIBILITY: PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6 MILES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARM AIRMASS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HOWEVER, INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, TO 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG BOTH COASTS, WITH
RESULTING WIND CHILL VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 30 AND 35 ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND 35 TO 40 ELSEWHERE.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY FOR
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, AS WELL AS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COLLIER
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. A HARD FREEZE IS EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS. TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE EVEN ACROSS THE GREATER
NAPLES AREA, AS WELL AS ISOLATED LOCALES ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH EVEN TEENS POSSIBLE OVER GLADES COUNTY.

FINALLY, NORTH WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

FLZ063-066>075-174-011000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WEST PALM BEACH...NAPLES...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...COCONUT CREEK...FORT LAUDERDALE...
HOLLYWOOD...PEMBROKE PINES...SHARK VALLEY...MIAMI...FLAMINGO...
FLORIDA CITY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
900 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE...

...POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR OUTER SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL AS THE
NAPLES AREA...

...A FREEZE WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
NEW YEARS DAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND COLLIER...AND
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...COLDEST ACROSS
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. A HARD FREEZE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS...IS EVEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NAPLES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER SUBURBS. ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL
INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
FAR OUTER SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS COULD EVEN DROP
TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. WHERE TEMPS DO NOT HIT FREEZING...FROST
IS POSSIBLE...BUT ONLY IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS SINCE BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A FREEZE WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD PREPARE TO TAKE ANY STEPS NECESSARY
TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS COLD WEATHER EVENT.

GREGORIA