Damaging Wind in Florida, February 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
639 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

.UPDATE...TOR WATCH 44 CANCELLED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND FOR CHOCTAW AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN TOR WATCH 47 AS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED DUE TO EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SQUALL
LINE OUT OF THOSE ZONES. TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THROUGH 10 AM. THE HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE EAST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH MID
MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN ABRUPT END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAN UP THE FIRST PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER AREAS AS FRONT
MOVES BY. /10

&&

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FA BY
NOONTIME...AND EAST OF THE FA ENTIRELY BY 3 PM. HAVE WENT WITH A
NAM/GFS/MOS BLEND FOR THE TEMP/TD CURVE...WITH THE MET HIGHS TODAY
LOOKING BETTER AND THE GFS/MAV CURVE FOR THE TEMP CURVE. HAVE USED
THE GFS PHYSICAL FOR DEWPOINTS...WITH SOME FUDGING WITH THE TIMING
AS FEEL THAT HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL GRADIENT. /16

.LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRONT OUT OF THE WAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE HIGH
BRINGS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. A COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOK TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE
ONE PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING...COULD TAP INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER THEN. LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE RIDGE AND COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES ON AVERAGE OFF THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS OUTPUT...GOING
COOLER FOR SUNDAYS LOWS/HIGHS AND MONDAY MORNING LOWS. WITH THE AXIS
OF THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY...A BREEZY DAY
IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY BRINGS A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. /10

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WILL BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE...AM GOING TO
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SETTLE
TONIGHT AS UPPER DYNAMICS CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND THE PUSH OF THE
AIRMASS LESSENS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MEANDER EASTWARD TO OVER THE SC/GA/FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE END
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT IN THE LIGHT WINDS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT GOOD DOWN GLIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. /16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING BRINGS ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS. DRIER DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOWEST HUMIDITIES AROUND 35 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS. PREFER TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING A WATCH FOR
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE AS GRIDDED FORECASTS SHOW WE ARE BORDERLINE
ON LOWEST RH DURATION => 3 TO 4 HRS. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT ASSESS
FURTHER. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  37  62  37 /  80  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   71  41  58  41 /  80  00  00  00
DESTIN      70  45  60  41 /  80  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   69  37  61  34 /  80  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  70  34  61  34 /  60  00  00  00
CAMDEN      68  37  59  33 /  80  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-071200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
430 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOMES SEVERE TODAY....THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY NOONTIME...WITH THE
RISK FOR SEVERE DECREASING.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ON ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. THIS WINDS WILL SETTLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH A STRONG
HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. BUILDING SEAS DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
301 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061000-
GEORGE-STONE-PERRY-GREENE-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAKESVILLE...NEW AUGUSTA...WAYNESBORO AND
WIGGINS...
301 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...
GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 300 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES WEST OF EUCUTTA TO 4 MILES WEST OF
ROGERS LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MAHNED...EUCUTTA...RHODES...EUCUTTA...WIGGINS...NEW AUGUSTA...WINGATE
AND WHISTLER THROUGH 400 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

PURDY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

ALZ052-MSZ067-076-061045-
WASHINGTON-GREENE-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...
403 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER WASHINGTON...GREENE
AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 400 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF PIAVE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
STATE LINE...BATTLES...LOPER...YARBO...KOENTON...MILLRY...FRANKVILLE
AND BIGBEE THROUGH 445 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

PURDY