Drought in Delaware, January 1 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
808 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE QUICKLY
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE
EAST BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. A
REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST AFD (UNLESS I REALLY MUCKED THINGS ROYALLY) OF 2007 AND ON
BEHALF OF THE ENTIRE STAFF HERE AT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY OFFICE WE
WANT TO WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR. HOPEFULLY THE
WEATHER WON/T LET YOU DOWN IN 2008 AND CAUSE YOU ANY PROBLEMS.

A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT TWEAKS. WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, TEMPS
HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL PBLY OCCUR EARLY AND THEN
RISE TWD MORNING AS THE CLOUDS AND A BIT OF A GRADIENT MOVES INTO
OUR CWA. WE ALSO SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN AS IT IS MOVING EWD ABT
1-2HRS SLOWER THAN WHAT THE FASTER GFS HAS. BY THE WAY THE WRF-NMM
IS TOO SLOW/FAR SW WITH THE SFC LOW AND ALSO TOO STINGY WITH ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT OF PCPN. THE GFS (AS A RESULT OF THE FORMER) WAS A
SMIDGE TOO FAR E WITH ITS FCST SFC LOW POSN. COMPARING THE 00Z/1ST
H925 AND H850 UA SOUNDINGS WITH THE 6HR FCSTS BY THE NAM AND GFS
ALSO SHOWED THAT THEY ARE WITHIN 1C ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FENCE BACK
INTO THE MIDWEST, SO NO BIG CHGS IN PTYP THOUGHTS FOR THE NEXT EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE HAVE GONE WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR THE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ROADS FREE OF
SNOW/RAIN FOR NEW YEARS EVE TRAVELERS. THE SNOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE AND COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THE THREE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA /CARBON AND MONROE IN
PA AND SUSSEX IN NJ/. WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES DOWN COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AS
WELL, BUT SINCE THEY FELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WE MENTIONED
SNOW IN THE HWO. MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WE KEPT
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO SINCE COLD
AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, ALBEIT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD,
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING ALONG SOME COLDER WEATHER WHICH WILL NOT HANG AROUND FOR LONG.

WE HUNG MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT WENT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FROPA WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITHOUT ADDING MUCH TO THE SYSTEM AT HAND.
WE PREFERRED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE NAM AS CONFIDENCE HAS DROPPED
WITH EACH PASSING RUN OF THE MODEL. IT JUST HASNT BEEN PREFORMING
WELL ENUF FOR US TO GO ALONG WITH IT AT THIS TIME.

WENT MAINLY WITH GFS MOS TEMPS WITH A BLEND OF FWC IN THERE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ITS ONWARD AND UPWARD FOR
TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HI PRES BY FRI MRNG WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND SHOULD BE A DECENT RADIATIONAL NIGHT. WE WENT AOB GUID MOST
PLACES. ACCEPTED A SLOW RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY DAY IN SPITE OF H8 TEMPS
WHICH GET ABOVE 0C BY THE END OF THE AFTN. WE KEPT A RADIATIONAL
TYPE NIGHT FOR MINS ON FRI NGT AND MAX TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
SATURDAY. A WAA/WARM FRONTAL TYPE SHOT OF PCPN IS SLATED FOR SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS TIMING. THE SLOWER
TIMING WOULD NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS A PTYP. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR FASTER IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SNOW LATER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. THE CLOUDS MIGHT SLOW THE ASCENT OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT BY THEN IT LOOKS LIKE MRF(GFS) MOS IS BEING SLOWED BY
CLIMO INFLUENCES. WE WENT ABOVE MOS GUID BOTH SUN AND MON.

BEYOND MONDAY AND BEYOND THE BEYOND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
PUMPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO APCH OR EXCEED 10C. THE LATEST GFS MOS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AVERAGE HAS 500MB HEIGHTS FORECASTED TO AVERAGE 300
METERS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE COASTAL PLAIN
COULD SEE A 70 DEGREE DAY BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. FOR ANYONE
THAT LONGS FOR WINTER IN WINTER THE LATEST MJO PHASE IS SUGGESTING
THAT THERE MIGHT ENOUGH OF A CONVECTIVE/LATENT HEAT PUSH IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC TO SET IN MOTION A PATTERN CHANGE. THIS IS NOT MY
DAY JOB, BUT THE LAST TIME THE MJO WAS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH/LOCATION
WAS IN MID NOVEMBER AND A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER OCCURRED IN EARLY
DECEMBER. IF EVERYTHING GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN (NOT MY DAY JOB
AGAIN), A CHANGE TO A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN WOULD OCCUR IN MID
JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP, OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME FOG ALSO COULD
DEVELOP. WE HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. I HAVE
ADDED SOME LLWS FOR THE MORNING TUESDAY SINCE SFC WINDS WILL BE SE
AROUND 10 KTS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW WINDS AROUND 50 KTS AT 2000
FT. LATER TOMORROW, MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY AROUND THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DRY WX
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROF THAT IS CARVING OUT A MAJOR TROF AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION. THE MAIN AXIS OF THAT TROF, AND AN
ASSOCIATED REINFORCING FRONT, DROPS INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WE
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST FRONT, AND
EVEN WITH THE MARINE AREA SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WE EXPECT
A STRONG SCA IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE BEFORE THE SECOND FRONT COMES THROUGH AND RAMPS US UP TO, AT
LEAST, STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AGAIN. ALL THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT PER MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/OHARA
MARINE...DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-012015-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
313 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW SHOULD
START CLOSE TO DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SNOW ADVISORY.

WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION REPORTS ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-012015-
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
313 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SNOW IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY DAY. THE SNOW MIGHT MIX WITH OR FALL AS
RAIN AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS AND OCCUR PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON NON ASPHALT SURFACES.

WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ067>071-
012015-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
313 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS COULD
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-452>455-012015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
313 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-012015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
313 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TFG