Hail in Connecticut, April 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
459 AM EDT EDT SAT APR 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM/...
WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...DRAPED FROM NEAR AVP SE
TO THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST. OKX RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THAT MOVED ACROSS EARLIER TONIGHT EXITING INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER NE PA GRAZES THE AREA.
SMALL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BETWEEN 750-900 MB PER EARLIER ACARS
SOUNDING OUT OF EWR IS GENERATING ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONVECTION...SO WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE
ENE INTO THE COOL SECTOR OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND GRAZE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES SOUTH/EAST. GRIDS SHOW LIKELY PRE-SUNRISE CATEGORICAL POP
FOR ORANGE...AND A BLANKET 40 POP ELSEWHERE FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY
THAT COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME.

SAT WV IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRYING TO THE REAR OF
THIS LAST CLUSTER OF STORMS...SO THIS DRYING PLUS H8 WINDS VEERING
WEST AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALL HELP THE WARM FRONT JUMP NORTH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS RESPONDING BY RISING WELL INTO
THE 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WILL CARRY CHANCE POP FOR THE
MORNING NORTH/WEST OF NYC MAINLY FOR FINE LINE OF SHRA ALONG COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR CT/LONG ISLAND.
WILL ALSO MENTION CHANCE THUNDER FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER EAST...AS DAYTIME HEATING COULD YIELD A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE AS THE LINE ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES NE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...DRAGGING
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SUNDAY/MONDAY SHOULD
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY...STAYING MAINLY
IN THE 50S PER BLEND OF 00Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS. UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST OPENS UP AND SWINGS ACROSS SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...PRECEDED BY
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES...SO
HAVE FORECAST CHANCE SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA...SOME TIME AFTER 06Z MON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH FAIR
WX RETURNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...ALONG
WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. LATE THURSDAY...THE HIGH PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH AN MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FOLLOWED A HPC/MOSGUIDE BLEND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE
FORECASTING THE LOW TO STAY OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL EARLY AND THE LOW COULD STILL PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT IN THE AREAS WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION EXITING THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS HELPED IMPROVED CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS.
WARM FRONT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT WINDS HAVE
NOW SHIFTED TO THE SE ACROSS LI AND AT NYC TERMINALS WHICH MEANS ITS
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH. TOUGH CALL WHETHER IT WILL DO SO BEFORE
MORNING...OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO JUMP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW AROUND 12Z.

VSBYS HAVEN/T REALLY COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE SHOWERS...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THEM TO...AT LEAST BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
RAIN. CIGS FINALLY COMING BACK DOWN TO LIFR AND SHOULD STAY DOWN
UNTIL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
(WHICH BASED ON WV IMAGERY SHOULD BE HERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO).

KSWF MAY BE BRUSHED BY THE BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER NE PA...WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THIS BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z. IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER...HAVE TIMED THE NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z. WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR RATHER
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME SW...BUT FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO THE W UNTIL
THIS EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO VFR. WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK (06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL TROF TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION SUN. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BKN CIGS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT-ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING VFR OVERNIGHT
SUN.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS E MON-WED. VFR CONDITIONS FCST. NLY FLOW UNTIL
TUES INTO WED WHEN WINDS GO LIGHT AND VRB WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD. HIGH SLIDES EAST ON WED WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONVERTED SCA ON THE OCEAN TO AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AND DELAYED
THE START TIME TO 15Z THIS MORNING. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT IN WEAK CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BAYS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE WITH BETTER MIXING NEAR
SHORE...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR TO PUT
UP AN SCA HERE.

WNA GUIDANCE IS RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH AT THE BUOYS...BUT SEAS SHOULD
BUILD WITH THE INCREASE OF WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
12-13 SEC SE SWELL ALSO PRESENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH WNA INDICATING AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUING. SINCE
THE GUIDANCE IS NOT PERFORMING WELL RIGHT OFF THE BAT..HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING IN IT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE END TIME AS 06Z FOR NOW
AND THE DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AND EXTEND IF NECESSARY.

MARGINAL SCA GUSTS MAY MATERIALIZE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL EVENT TOTAL QPF SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...BUT WITH
MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST AN INCH IN TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
COULD CAUSE PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

GOODMAN/AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
526 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005-006-008>010-012-NJZ002>006-
011-NYZ067>081-131000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
526 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ007-011-131000-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
526 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CONNECTICUT RIVER REMAINS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR
FLOODING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
541 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

CTZ005-006-010-NYZ070-121030-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN
NEW HAVEN-
541 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...NEW HAVEN AND
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 537 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PEEKSKILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES NORTH OF BEDFORD BY 545 AM.
  NEAR RIDGEFIELD BY 555 AM.
  NEAR GEORGETOWN BY 600 AM.
  5 MILES NORTH OF TRUMBULL BY 605 AM.
  NEAR MONROE BY 610 AM.
  NEAR DERBY BY 615 AM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM
COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

GOODMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
605 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

CTZ005>012-121045-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN NEW
LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW
HAVEN-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
605 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...MIDDLESEX...NEW HAVEN
AND WESTERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES...

AT 602 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKVILLE TO
GEORGETOWN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WATERBURY TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 70 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR WOLCOTT BY 610 AM.
  NEAR ORANGE BY 615 AM.
  NEAR WALLINGFORD BY 620 AM.
  NEAR PORTLAND BY 625 AM.
  NEAR GUILFORD BY 630 AM.
  NEAR NORTH MADISON BY 635 AM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS COULD
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

GOODMAN