Hail in Colorado, June 20, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1256 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 584 ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS THROUGH 7 PM MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ADDED SEVERE WEATHER WITH PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL
TO ALL SOUTHEAST PLAINS GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008/

SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...STILL HAVE A FEW -SHRA OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS
OF 0930Z...AS SEEMLY ENDLESS STREAM OF WEAK UPPER ENERGY ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. VERY WEAK UPSLOPE SURGE AT THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS
BROUGHT 50F DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOOKS TO BE
FADING AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK DRAINAGE FLOWS
REDEVELOPING. WATER VAPOR AND FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL
SEVERAL INTERESTING MID LEVEL WESTWARD PROPAGATING WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM THE LARGE MCS IN TX.
WOULDNT BE TOO SURPRISED IF THESE ENHANCE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IF THEY LINGER OVER SRN COLORADO.

TODAY...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE MORNING PERIOD OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...THOUGH EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST NAM KEEPS
WINDS EASTERLY ALL DAY OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH ALLOWS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAXIMIZE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-25 IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH A NICE RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA BY 21Z. 06Z RUN HAS INCREASED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL...LEADING TO RATHER HEALTHY AREA OF 50-60 KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST BY 00Z. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PV LOBE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AIDING IN UPWARD MOTION. SUSPECT
WELL SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY VERSUS THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY MUCH OF THE EAST
AFTER 18Z. ALSO ADDED SEVERE TO AREAS EAST OF I-25...AS WEVE HAD
SEVERE HERE THE LAST 3 DAYS AND SEE NO REASON IT WONT HAPPEN ONCE
AGAIN. ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FARTHER
WEST...AS MOISTURE GETS VERY S51OW WEST OF I-25.

TONIGHT...200-400 MB PV LOBE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP TSRA GOING WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS. BUMPED UP POPS EAST OF I-25 IN THE 00Z-06Z
TIMEFRAME...AND EXPANDED POPS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD ON THE PLAINS AFTER
06Z.  --ETP--

LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

PV LOBE EXITS EASTERN CO SAT MORNING...THUS COULD BE ONGOING
CONVECTION IN THE AM ACROSS SE CORNER...THOUGH 06Z NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY 12Z. MODELS DRY OUT LOW LVLS BEHIND FEATURE FOR SAT
AFTN WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL FORCING EVIDENT ALOFT. STILL EASTERLY
LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPS SOME MODERATE LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SE PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG
THE BORDER. SBCAPES SAT AFTN RUN AROUND 500-1400 J/KG WITH WEAKER
DEEP LAYER SHEARS DUE TO WEAKER FLOWS ALOFT. SUSPECT AFTN TSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD (10-20 POPS LOOK TO COVER IT)
WITH TSTORM TYPE LIKELY TO BE MULTICELLULAR. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SVR STORM...ESP ALONG THE SRN BORDER WHERE DEW POINTS ARE THE
HIGHEST AND CAPES WILL BE BETTER. WITH LITTLE LIFT TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION ACROSS SE CO SAT NIGHT...SUSPECT MOST TSTORMS WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

SUNDAY DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP...ESP FOR THE PLAINS.  BOTH GFS/NAM
SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN CO DURING THE LATE
AFTN...AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE CONTINUED SE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW LVL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH 40S FARTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION...ESP EAST OF I-25. BUT WITH
AFTN HEATING...AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE DAY...SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED AFTN TSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE MTS. COULD EVEN SEE AN
INCREASE IN TSTORM COVERAGE OUT WEST...BUT WILL KEEP LOW ISOLATED
POPS FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. ALSO ADDED SOME
LOW ISO POPS OVERNIGHT OUT WEST AS ENERGY WILL STILL MOVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AFT 06Z WHICH COULD SUSTAIN SOME WEAK CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF THOUGH...AND
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...SAT AFTN/EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE SE
CORNER...WHERE A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST SFC DEW POINTS MIX OUT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS KEEPING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SRN/CEN U.S ROCKIES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS MAKES PERIODIC
RESURGENCES INTO THE SE PLAINS ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW.
MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUN WITH WARMER TEMPS/SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC
DEW POINTS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO ADVECT BACK INTO EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA FOR TUESDAY...THEN WAVERS BACK TO THE EAST INTO
THURS AS RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS FAR
OUT...DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT AT BEST...SO FCST WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED POPS EACH DAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. -KT

AVIATION...
TSRA CHANCES AT KCOS AND KPUB DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...AND WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE MOISTURE TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND A LITTLE
LONGER PERIOD OF MVFR WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSRA STILL POSSIBLE AT KALS...WITH
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS THE THREAT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

50/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
117 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

COZ058>089-093>099-211930-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
117 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ONE OR TWO STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO KANSAS
BORDER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS EACH DAY WHERE THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.