Wildfire in California, June 20 to 21, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FAIR AND MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND WITH PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COASTAL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE BY MID WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INLAND.

&&

.UPDATE...ADDED TSTMS TO CAZ004 REST OF THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING AS ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE LIGHTNING
STRIKES OVER SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY.
NOTIFIED CDF FORTUNA COMMAND OF LATEST LIGHTNING STRIKE TRENDS
AND STORM MOTION. SUSPECT THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY 700-800 PM AS
HEATING WANES. -MC

&&

.DISCUSSION...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG 38N THIS AFTERNOON CROSSING 138W...WHILE VSBL
SHOTS DEPICT FAIRLY GOOD STORM TOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING NE
TOWARD THE PAC NW FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. VSBL ALSO REVEALED A LARGE
FOG BANK JUST OFF THE HUMBOLDT DEL NOTRE COAST WITH CLEAR SKIES
OFF THE MENDOCINO COAST AND OVER ALL INLAND ZONES.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...MARINE MOISTURE WILL ACCUMULATE
ALONG THE COAST WITH FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS NEAR THE OCEAN...POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR
AND MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSH BRIEFLY FOLLOWS UPPER TROUGH-AXIS PASSAGE.

LATE SAT AFTN SOME INSTABILITY GENERATES OVER THE TRINITY ALPS BUT
GIVEN THE DRYNESS ONLY ELEVATED SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
MOST LIKELY PRODUCING VIRGA AT BEST WITH INSUFFICIENT VERTICAL
GROWTH FOR LIGHTNING...THUS NO POPS OR LTG HAS BEEN INSERTED.

LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MID WEEK
BRINGING POTENTIAL COASTAL DRIZZLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH A VERY SLIGHT COOLING TREND INLAND DURING THE MIDDLE WEEK.
EVEN WITH THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT.-MC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  WITH THE MARINE LAYER REMAINING IN PLACE
NEAR THE COAST...EXPECT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO RE-FORM TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.  PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
STATE. KL

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.  NW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
PEAK ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WHERE
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. KL

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

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