Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, March 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY MOVED SOUTH AND EAST TO THE MISSOURI BORDER
AND EXTENDS WEST INTO OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
ARKANSAS HAVE BROUGHT MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN NORTH
ARKANSAS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRING PRECIPITATION
TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A NEW SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DVLP IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHRA AND TSRA CHCS RETURNING TO AR MON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPR TROF. THE GFS CONTS A MORE NLY TRACK...COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. WL CONT TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THEM WITH
INCRSG POPS DURG THE TIME PD. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THAT HINGES ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE UPR SYS AND
ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  67  48  55 /  80  50  60  40
CAMDEN AR         55  75  55  68 /  80  40  30  10
HARRISON AR       47  68  45  54 /  80  50  70  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  73  52  63 /  80  40  40  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  71  51  62 /  80  60  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     55  74  55  67 /  80  50  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      51  73  51  62 /  80  40  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  67  45  54 /  80  50  70  50
NEWPORT AR        52  67  49  55 /  80  60  70  40
PINE BLUFF AR     54  72  53  65 /  80  60  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  70  49  58 /  80  40  50  30
SEARCY AR         52  68  50  58 /  80  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      53  71  52  61 /  80  60  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A STORM SYSTEM WAS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...MOISTURE WAS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
FUEL DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 5
PM AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND COULD BE SEVERE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN ARKANSAS
FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH
OF ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT...TRAILING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATURAL STATE. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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