Damaging Wind and Heavy Rain in Arkansas, July 23, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TO AVIATION INTERESTS. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDED LATE IN THE EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT
HAS TAKEN PLACE IN MISSOURI AND IS MOVING INTO NORTH ARKANSAS. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED WEST INTO OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWING PIECES OF ENERGY
TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
BE LOCATED IN NORTH ARKANSAS AND EXTENDS INTO WEST TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THE STORMS TODAY.

INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES ARE
NOTED IN THE NORTH. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS. NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO DROP OUT OF THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA SEEMS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEST
HALF OF ARKANSAS. THE RETURN OF THE HIGH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER
MAX TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED MORE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY...AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS AND NCEP GRAPHICS SHOW A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALSO HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTION. A BIT LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
LESS HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR...WHILE SOUTH...MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE AREA IS IN QUESTION...AND LATER MODEL RUNS WILL HELP FINE TUNE
DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  69  91  72 /  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN AR         97  72  95  73 /  30  30  20  30
HARRISON AR       90  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  72  94  72 /  30  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  72  94  73 /  30  20  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     97  73  95  74 /  30  30  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      96  71  94  71 /  30  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  30
NEWPORT AR        91  70  92  73 /  30  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     96  73  95  74 /  30  30  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         93  71  93  73 /  30  20  20  30
STUTTGART AR      95  73  94  74 /  30  20  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
845 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...AS A FRONT OVER MISSOURI SAGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO
ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT ITSELF...SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ON ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS THE AIR MASS HEATS UP AND BECOMES UNSTABLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE STATE WITH BE A LITTLE LOWER VERSUS DAYS
PAST...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH...WHILE READINGS IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED....SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. OVER THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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