Lightning Strike in Arkansas, July 21, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1034 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR THE REST OF TODAY...

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING HAZE WORDING AND TWEAK TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT...HEAT INDEX...AND SKY GRIDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR IN MANY PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 96 TO 102 DEGREE RANGE. CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IS
ON TRACK.

AT 1030 AM CDT...HOT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR PARIS TN
TO THE MID 90S NEAR CORINTH MS...ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER ON
AVERAGE THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WAS
IN CONTROL. THE NEAREST RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND ILLINOIS NEAR A COLD FRONT.

REST OF TODAY...HOT AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 96 NEAR PARIS TN TO 102 OVER NE MS NEAR CORINTH WHERE
VERTICAL MIXING MAY BE DEEPER. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 105
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...SO WILL NOT ALTER HEAT ADVISORY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY MIX DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE NEAR ZERO. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND PERHAPS ZERO AS
MID LEVEL CAPPING HAS INCREASED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
+10 TO +11 RANGE.

APPEARS SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DEFINITELY WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...5940M UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 3-5 MILE VISIBILITIES. TEMPS REMAIN VERY
WARM UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO 80 AT MEMPHIS.

TODAY...ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP. UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY AS SUBSIDENCE ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO
22-23C. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING LESS EACH DAY SO EXPECT UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.
SINCE THE HEAT INDEX IN JACKSON TN HIT 103 YESTERDAY HAVE DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE MID
SOUTH. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT 5
PERCENT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE EVENING. INCREASING 850
MB WINDS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TOWARD MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO BUT
ALSO NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER. TEMPS WILL
BE VERY WARM WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH REGARD TO
THE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. AS
A RESULT THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING INTO THE MID SOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER TUESDAYS FORECAST IS A LITTLE
TRICKY. THINK THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
HEAT UP MUCH OF THE DAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. FOR NOW WENT
WITH LOWER 90S ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...CLOSEST TO THE CLOUDS
AND DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...MID 90S THROUGH THE
MEMPHIS AREA AND UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THESE TEMPS
COULD EASILY BE TOO LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS DEPENDING ON HOW
THE DAY PLAYS OUT. AS A RESULT THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BACK TO THE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ON TUESDAY AS STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EXPAND OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME SINCE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE OVERLAID WITH SOME STRONGER MID
LEVEL WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID SOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST COAST AND
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY GIVEN
AREA DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS. MEX TEMP GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL
DURING THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEX IS WARMER AND HAVE ADDED A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TO EACH DAY BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN 5910M 500 MB HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THE MID
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER
FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  99  78  96  75 /   0  10  20  40
MKL  98  72  95  70 /   0  20  30  40
JBR 100  74  95  72 /   0  10  20  40
TUP 100  73  97  73 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

MBS/SJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-221130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
437 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
THROUGH 8 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

SJM