Flash Flooding and Hail in Arkansas, April 8, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
259 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
KLZK RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION WAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM ASH FLAT TO MENA. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL IN CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH LI VALUES TO -6. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF ARKANSAS HAS BEEN ISSUED...HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND NORTH OF ARKANSAS THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY CAUSE MORE
FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING TO ALREADY FLOODED AREAS. THE FRONT
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BRING COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ON SATURDAY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BEFORE
WARMING FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  65  58  73 /  50  40  60  60
CAMDEN AR         61  75  65  78 /  70  70  40  70
HARRISON AR       45  62  55  70 /  20  70  80  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  68  61  75 /  70  60  50  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  68  61  75 /  70  60  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     61  75  65  79 /  70  70  30  70
MOUNT IDA AR      55  68  60  74 /  60  50  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  62  55  71 /  30  70  80  70
NEWPORT AR        55  66  60  73 /  60  40  50  70
PINE BLUFF AR     60  71  64  77 /  70  70  40  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  66  58  72 /  40  30  70  70
SEARCY AR         55  67  60  73 /  70  50  50  70
STUTTGART AR      58  69  63  75 /  70  60  40  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE BLACK RIVER...THE LOWER WHITE RIVER...THE CACHE
AND OUACHITA RIVERS.

A WARM FRONT...LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH ALLOWING PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
RETURN TO THE NATURAL STATE. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF OKLAHOMA
TODAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HOWEVER... A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED BUT A GENERAL ONE HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG THE BLACK...LOWER
WHITE...CACHE AND OUACHITA RIVERS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
WITH CHANCES OF BOTH HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE.

IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY EARLY THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT AS
IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVER
RUN THIS BOUNDARY AND ONCE AGAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS GO AROUND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FINALLY
DRAG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO A MOISTURE RICH AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. UNFORTUNATELY THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WIND PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. SOME OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE PROLONGED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS...IT
WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. IT
APPEARS MORE HEAVY RAIN IS A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SEVERAL MORE
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL ONLY EXASPERATE THE
FLOODING SITUATION.

THE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER SITUATIONS WILL BE MONITORED
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH UPDATES ISSUED AS NEEDED. NOW WOULD BE A
GOOD TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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