Flash Flooding and Hail in Arizona, July 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MORE NORMAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-50 DBZ ECHOES
ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AT 2050Z. THE
REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST SECTIONS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AS PER SWODY1 A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT...MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA POP FIELDS. WITHOUT RESTATING EACH MODEL SOLUTION...APPEARS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD
AND SWD STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. HAVE ISSUED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING THRU SUN
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SE AZ EXCEPT FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY/PUBLIC ZONE
31. AT THIS TIME APPEARS MAJORITY OF SE AZ WILL RECEIVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
LOCALIZED 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DECREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING MON...THOUGH THIS NOTION NOT
NECESSARILY SUPPORTED VIA 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER BELIEVE
DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST BY TUE. AT ANY
RATE...STILL APPEARS 25/12Z GFSX MOS GUIDANCE POP VALUES ARE TOO LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR POPS CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES. COOLER SAT DUE
TO INCREASED-MOISTURE SCENARIO...AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MON ABOUT 10
DEGS OR SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE LATE JULY. SOME WARMING DURING
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS EVENING WITH 5-8K FT AGL
CEILINGS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO NEAR 1 MILE. BRIEF GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS VICINITY STRONGEST STORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSRA/SHRA AFTER 26/07Z AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER TERRAIN
LIKELY TO HAVE MVFR AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
      FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
      AZZ019-029-030-032>035.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
127 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-261400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
127 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLLY APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THESE REMNANTS WILL NOT AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THESE
REMNANTS WILL AID IN SATURATING THE GROUND. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOOD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
DAY OR NIGHT...ALONG WITH RAINFALL RATES WELL OVER ONE INCH PER
HOUR. MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1042 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ESE TUCSON            32.19N 110.80W
07/24/2008                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF HOME NEAR 22ND AND CAMINO SECO.
            TIME APPROXIMATE.

&&

PYTLAK