High Wind in Alaska, March 23, 2008

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
450 AM ADT SUN MAR 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT BY LATE WEEK UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH GREATER
THAN NORMAL. NO MAJOR WARM-UP IS FORESEEN...NOR ARE ANY MAJOR
STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL GET PINCHED OFF ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL
WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE FOR MORE THAN A WEEK TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN.  AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS. THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS FOR ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH TO
BASICALLY REPLACE OR RE-ENERGIZE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND NOW
THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A HIGH ARCTIC TROUGH THAT MAY UNDERCUT THE
WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK AND PUSH TO THE NW ALASKA COAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LAST NIGHT THE GFS HAD A MORE PRONOUNCED
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR LATE IN THE WEEK. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT WHATEVER SOLUTION EVENTUALLY PANS OUT THAT NO
MAJOR WARM-UPS WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN
STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE CWA RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ217.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ205-AKZ206.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CF MAR 08