High Wind in Alaska, January 21 to 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 21 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE BERING
SEA PAST 74 HOURS BUT THAT IS NOT UNUSUAL. THE LARGER ISSUE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE NEAR TERM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS A
WAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS NOT ON THE GFS MODEL AT ALL. IT IS
ON THE NAM MODEL BUT THE NAM HAS IT MOVING NORTH TOO QUICKLY AND A
LITTLE FAR TO THE WEST. IN SHORT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FEATURE THAT
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT NONE OF THE
MODELS APPEAR TO HANDLE IT VERY WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIG LOW MOVING OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS ON TRACK AND SHOULD MOVE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND OVERNIGHT
AND THEN TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AFTER THAT. THIS LOW IS QUITE WARM
AND IS BRINGING RAIN AHEAD OF IT AND WITH IT. THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS RATHER SHARP BEHIND THIS LOW AND AREAS WEST OF IT WILL BE
IN SNOW.
IN THE EAST THE BIG QUESTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING UP THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SINCE THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THERE ARE NOT SHOWING A
STRONG RESPONSE TO IT. HOWEVER IT IS IN A DATA SPARSE AREA AND RADAR
SHOWS A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH IT. THE SUSPICION IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A BIG
INFLUENCE ON SURFACE GRADIENT BECAUSE OF IT BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...LOTS OF PROBLEM AREAS OUT WEST WITH THIS LOW.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS GETTING CLOSE TO WIND WARNING CRITERIA AS THE
FRONT IS RIGHT ON THEM AND SO ARE THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS WILL GET INTO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLIZZARD WARNING...AND RIGHT NOT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT. THINKING IS THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOVING OUT AS THE WIND INCREASES AND THERE WILL ONLY BE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY.
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA IS ALSO A BLIZZARD CANDIDATE FOR TOMORROW. IT
WILL BE WARM AND RAINY TONIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW AS THE
TEMPERATURE RAPIDLY DROPS. EASTERN AREA OF ZONE 155 MAY ALSO STRUGGLE
WITH THIS AS WELL AS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
BE BREEZY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE EAST THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH WIND AND HOW MUCH
MELTING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. CURRENTLY FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN FOR A CHINOOK WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW
OUT WEST AND THE TRACK IT IS TAKING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND. IN ANCHORAGE
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COME OVER THE CITY AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THERE IS A WRENCH IN THE
WORKS IN THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE IN THE GULF. IF IT DOES
HAVE A STRONGER EFFECT AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BAG OUT THE PRESSURE
FIELD AND GREATLY DIMINISH WINDS FROM WHAT ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THIS REMAINS MORE OF A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAN A LIKELY SCENARIO.
SUMMED UP...IT IS POSSIBLE IT WILL BE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF
WIND UP COOK INLET THAN A CHINOOK EVENT WITH ADIABATIC WARMING OFF TE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT A GOOD BIT OF THE AREA...BUT
BEWARE OF FOG AND STRATUS AS THERE IS A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
LEFT BY THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
A LARGE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 171 172 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 155 160 165 170 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08