Blizzard in Alaska, February 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SORT TERM THE MODELS ARE PERFORMING WELL.
HOWEVER LATE IN THE WEEK ALL THE MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING A STRONG LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA AROUND FRIDAY. NONE OF THEM WERE
DOING THIS A DAY AGO. ALL FOUR MODELS MADE THIS SWITCH STARTING AT
THE 00Z RUN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IT IS ODD TO SEE ALL FOUR AGREE ON
MAKING SUCH A SUDDEN CHANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN THE SOLUTION THE
PAST TWO RUNS AND FORECASTS ARE BEING MOVED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIG ACTION REMAINS ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE JET STREAM IS AND WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT IT IS STILL GIVING SUPPORT TO THE LARGE
LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
INTERIOR AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS PREVENTING THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT PAST THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
HOWEVER AS IT STALLS AND ELONGATES IT IS CAUSING STRONG WINDS AND
SOME BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG IT.
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE
WEATHER PATTERN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
PERSISTED AND IS CAUSING STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
THIS EVENING IN THE UNALASKA AREA AND ST GEORGE ISLAND. IN UNALASKA
THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT STALLING OUT AND STOPPING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM ADVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY AND MIXING
IN RAIN. THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED TO ST GEORGE ISLAND AND BRINGING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER ITS PROGRESSION STOPPED
BEFORE ST PAUL ISLAND AND THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BE PUSHED BACK TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL END THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THIS MAY BRING
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 155 160 165 171 175 176 179 185.
         STORM 170 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120-141 160 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08