Blizzard in Alaska, February 3 to 4, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
135 PM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...TODAYS RUNS APPEAR BETTER THAN SATURDAYS STUFF
WITH RESPECT TO THE GULF AND PRIBILOF STORMS. GULF LOW DRIFTING EAST
PER MODEL GUIDENCE AND WEAKENING. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY AND
ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CONTINUED COLD OUTFLOW FROM THE INTERIOR. MODELS
AGAIN MAY BE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE SINCE THEY SEEM TO KEY IN ON
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC 975 MB SYSTEM THAT MOVES TO DIXION ENTRANCE ON
TUESDAY.

PRIBILOF ISLAND STORM HAS BEEN A GREAT WIND PRODUCER..A HUGE MISS
FROM YESTERDAYS FORECASTS..WITH STORMS IN THE MARINE SECTOR AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AT ST GEORGE. USUALLY WHEN A STORM TRACKS NORTH AND TO THE
WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS THERE IS ENUF WARMING TO END THE BLIZZARD AND
CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THIS IS NOT THE CASE SINCE THE
WESTERLY JET ALONG 38N HAS CUT OFF ANY WARM AIR. THIS WOULD ALSO
EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SNOW AT ST PAUL. THE BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY OUT THAT WAY LOOKS GOOD AS THE LOW STOPS THIS EVENING
THEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

NEXT BIG STORM MOVES UP TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE BERING FOR 40-50 KT EASTERLIES. THE TREND OF ELONGATING THE
FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT WAVES EASTWARD CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLD ARCTIC HIGH HOLDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
AND THE INTERIOR. THE PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERIODS OF WARNING
LEVEL NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER RIVER
DELTA THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST.

UPPER LEVELS...UPPER HIGH NORTHERN BERING REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY
AND WOBBLES SOME AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WORK THEIR WAY UP AND
AROUND THE PERIMETER. 3AM GFS RUN HOLDS THIS OMEGA OR REX TYPE BLOCK
IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN START SOME RETROGRESSION.

NO CHANGE IN CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER FOR MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. THE
ICE AGE LIKE THICKNESSES YESTERDAYS RUN BROUGHT INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN ARE NOW EXPECTED STAY MORE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WHERE THEY BELONG...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST WEEK. STILL COLD ENUF
FOR AREAS OF ZONE 141 TO DROP TO -40 OR -45F IN THE CALM CLEAR
VALLEYS.

-34 THIS MORNING AT WILLOW WILL BE REPEATED TONIGHT AND IS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PARKS
HIWAY UP TO TRAPER CREEK OR SO. INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT BEYOND
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SURFACE NORTHERLIES AND BRING SOME WIND CHILLS
ADVISORY POTENTIAL FROM THE PARK SOUTH ACROSS THE KENAI PEN AND MOST
OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PRIBILOFS.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155 STARTING TONIGHT IF THE WIND PICKS
         UP.
         HIGH WIND WATCH TUE NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
         AND COPPER RIVER DELTA.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 160 185 125 129 130 132 138 140
                                    141.
         GALE AREAS 170 172 185
         STORM AREA 179.

PERCY FEB 08