Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, December 1, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE WAS A PROBLEM BACK EAST AND WE MISSED ALOT OF MODEL DATA THIS
MORNING. GFS IS COMPLETELY IN AND THE ECMWF IS ONLY IN THROUGH
96 HRS. WE MISSED ALL OF THE UKMET AND SOME SHORT TERM HOURS OF THE
OF THE 06Z NAM. THAT BEING SAID. THE GFS/ECMWF INITIALIZED FAIRLY
WELL ON TH SYNOPTIC SCALE AND DID A GOOD JOB WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. AT 60 HOURS OUT AND BEYOND WE TRENDED TOWARD
THE EC/NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS MOVE THE SECONDARY LOW TOO FAST TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH NO NEW
DATA FOR THE ECMWF BEYOND 96 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE STATE WHICH BROUGHT THE SNOW TO
SOUTHCENTRAL IN NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST ALASKA DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND IS MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA BY THIS MORNING. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE BERING STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING TO THE EAST
OVER THE MAINLAND. THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AS FAR AS THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT EASTWARD
OVER THE MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW HAS MOVED EAST AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING.  COLD ADVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ALASKA AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEGUN TO DROP. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
THE TEEN AROUND ANCHORAGE AND UP INTO THE 20S ALONG THE COAST.
A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
COLD DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AREAS AND
BRISTOL BAY.

.BERING/ALEUTIANS...
THE COMPLEX LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND BE ABSORBED BY A SECONDARY LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SECOND LOW WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE 950S IN THE
SAME GENERAL POSITION OF THE FIRST LOW BY TUESDAY. STRONG GALE/STORM
FORCE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW IN MOST AREAS AS TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE 30S. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE PRIBILOFS WITH ALL SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE
THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK WHEN
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 170 172 175 176.
         GALES  121 129 138 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 08