Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, June 9, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ACTIVE SHORT TERM AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS DECIDED TO RELEASE ITS
STRONG GRIP FROM OVER THE AREA.  THIS HAS ACTED TO BRING MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEN STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  THIS
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A DECENT AMOUNT FOLKS TO
RECEIVE AS SHOT AT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
THOUGH AS THE WESTERN CWA MAY GET LEFTOUT DUE TO PASSAGE TIMING
ISSUES.  ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME...HOWEVER...AS THINGS HAVE TRENDED
DRY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

17/KLAWS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WEAKNESSES DEVELOPING IN THE
RIDGE AS SHORT WAVES MOVE TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT RIDGE...FIND ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN SH/TS
CHANCES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR HIGHS...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND BACK TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE SOUTHERN SITES MGM AND TOI AND IN THE EAST AT ANB.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDED CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE
ANY MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE ISSUANCE.  THIS MAY HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE
AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH AS FEEL THUNDER DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
TO AT LEAST EET AND BHM...SO MAY HAVE TO AMEND FOR LATER.  OTHERWISE
LOOKING FOR LEFTOVER STRATUS AND CIRRUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVING
WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDS TOMORROW
MORNING.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  89  68  86  69 /  20  30  20  40  30
ANNISTON    70  89  68  87  70 /  20  30  20  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  69  89  71 /  20  30  20  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  91  69  90  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
CALERA      69  89  70  88  70 /  20  30  20  40  20
AUBURN      69  90  68  86  69 /  20  30  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  91  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
TROY        70  90  68  90  70 /  20  30  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
108 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-101800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
108 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DUE TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST IN THIS AREA. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...MODERATE.
MONTGOMERY...HIGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

12/SIRMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ALZ019>021-092030-
CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-
301 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALHOUN...CHEROKEE AND CLEBURNE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 256 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARS HILLS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
PIEDMONT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LIBERTY HILL.
  BORDEN SPRINGS.
  SPRING GARDEN.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

12/SIRMON